prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 6 Tampa Bay 30 29.9, 22 New York Giants 10 16.9
65% 25 Cleveland 13 30.4, 31 Detroit 10 21.4
62% 2 New England 25 27.2, 27 Atlanta 0 20.0
61% 18 San Francisco 30 25.6, 28 Jacksonville 10 21.0
60% 7 Baltimore 16 23.4, 21 Chicago 13 19.4
59% 10 Kansas City 19 28.3, 12 Dallas 9 23.2
56% 24 Miami 24 25.0, 30 New York Jets 17 23.1
55% 19 Cincinnati 32 34.2, 29 Las Vegas 13 31.1
48% 16 Minnesota 34 22.2, 3 Green Bay 31 22.8
47% 23 Los Angeles Chargers 41 23.0, 14 Pittsburgh 37 23.9
45% 5 Arizona 23 21.6, 8 Seattle 13 23.4
43% 15 Philadelphia 40 23.0, 4 New Orleans 29 25.2
38% 26 Washington 27 18.5, 20 Carolina 21 23.7
35% 13 Indianapolis 41 20.8, 1 Buffalo 15 28.7
16% 32 Houston 22 15.3, 9 Tennessee 13 33.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.90 5 0.95 0 0.00 2 0.61 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 8 9.3 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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