2021 Week 12 (25-29 Nov) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 84%   7 Baltimore               16 29.6,    26 Cleveland               10 17.3
 64%   2 Green Bay               36 25.4,    12 Los Angeles Rams        28 19.6
 63%  16 San Francisco           34 27.0,    17 Minnesota               26 21.9
 62%  18 Denver                  28 25.4,    22 Los Angeles Chargers    13 20.7
 61%   1 New England             36 24.4,    11 Tennessee               13 18.4
 57%  24 Miami                   33 22.6,    20 Carolina                10 19.9
 56%  19 Cincinnati              41 23.7,    14 Pittsburgh              10 21.9
 55%  21 Chicago                 16 22.1,    29 Detroit                 14 20.7

 47%  27 Atlanta                 21 22.8,    28 Jacksonville            14 24.1
 44%   8 Tampa Bay               38 25.0,     6 Indianapolis            31 28.0
 43%  31 New York Jets           21 22.7,    30 Houston                 14 26.2
 43%  23 New York Giants         13 20.2,    15 Philadelphia             7 22.9
 43%   9 Buffalo                 31 23.7,     3 New Orleans              6 27.2
 39%  25 Washington              17 19.0,    10 Seattle                 15 23.2
 34%  32 Las Vegas               36 25.8,    13 Dallas                  33 41.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                8 0.67   6 1.06   0 0.00   1 1.20   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  15   8   9.1 0.88

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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