prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
57% 3 Kansas City 42 25.2, 2 Buffalo 36 22.4
39% 8 Los Angeles Rams 30 21.8, 4 Tampa Bay 27 27.4
31% 12 San Francisco 13 20.4, 5 Green Bay 10 27.0
26% 20 Cincinnati 19 20.0, 11 Tennessee 16 26.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.77 2 0.00 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 1 2.6 0.38
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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