31 Jan 2023: Average model rankings (NFL) for the 2022 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  2   3 11.0  5.1 Kansas City               17  5   0 10.1  5.1 Tampa Bay               
  2  2   3 10.8  5.4 Buffalo                   18  6   0 10.2  4.8 Arizona                 
  3  3   3 10.8  5.2 Dallas                    19  7   0 10.1  4.9 Cleveland               
  4  3   3 10.8  5.2 Philadelphia              20  5   0 10.1  5.1 New York Giants         
  5  6   3 10.8  5.4 Cincinnati                21  4   0 10.1  5.0 Atlanta                 
  6  5   1 10.5  5.3 San Francisco             22  8   0 10.1  4.9 Jacksonville            
  7  6   1 10.5  4.9 Seattle                   23  6   0 10.0  5.2 Los Angeles Rams        
  8  6   1 10.6  4.7 Minnesota                 24  8   0  9.9  5.3 New York Jets           
  9  5   1 10.4  5.3 New England               25 12   0  9.9  5.4 Pittsburgh              
 10 14   1 10.9  3.7 Las Vegas                 26  4   0 10.0  4.8 Chicago                 
 11  5   1 10.3  5.4 Baltimore                 27  4   0 10.0  4.9 Carolina                
 12  5   0 10.4  4.9 Miami                     28  7   0  9.8  5.1 Tennessee               
 13  4   0 10.3  4.9 Los Angeles Chargers      29  6  -1  9.7  5.2 Washington              
 14  9   0 10.4  4.7 Detroit                   30  7  -1  9.7  4.8 Indianapolis            
 15  6   0 10.2  5.3 New Orleans               31  4  -2  9.5  5.3 Denver                  
 16  7   0 10.2  4.9 Green Bay                 32  2  -2  9.6  4.6 Houston                 

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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