28 Sep 2022: Average model rankings (NFL) for the 2022 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  2   4 11.0  5.8 Buffalo                   17 10   0 10.1  5.3 New Orleans             
  2  2   4 11.1  5.5 Kansas City               18  7   0 10.1  5.3 Chicago                 
  3  3   2 10.9  5.1 Baltimore                 19  8   0 10.1  5.3 Seattle                 
  4  8   2 10.7  5.3 Miami                     20  5   0 10.2  4.9 Cleveland               
  5  4   2 10.7  5.2 Philadelphia              21  6   0 10.0  5.4 Dallas                  
  6  3   2 10.4  5.9 Tampa Bay                 22  8   0 10.0  5.4 Jacksonville            
  7 10   1 10.2  5.8 Green Bay                 23  4   0 10.0  5.3 New York Giants         
  8 15   1 10.4  5.1 Arizona                   24  4   0 10.1  5.1 Carolina                
  9  5   1 10.3  5.3 New England               25 10   0 10.0  5.1 Minnesota               
 10  5   0 10.5  4.9 Atlanta                   26  6   0 10.3  4.4 Detroit                 
 11  8   0 10.3  5.3 Indianapolis              27  4   0 10.0  5.1 Tennessee               
 12 13   0 10.7  4.2 Las Vegas                 28  9   0  9.8  5.7 Denver                  
 13  7   0 10.3  5.2 Los Angeles Rams          29  7   0 10.0  4.8 Washington              
 14  5   0 10.2  5.2 Pittsburgh                30 22  -1 10.0  4.6 Los Angeles Chargers    
 15  6   0 10.1  5.6 San Francisco             31  3  -1  9.9  4.8 New York Jets           
 16  4   0 10.1  5.5 Cincinnati                32  4  -1  9.7  4.9 Houston                 

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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