prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
65% 2 Buffalo 41 36.1, 21 Tennessee 7 14.9
64% 1 Kansas City 27 35.7, 14 Los Angeles Chargers 24 18.7
62% 13 New York Giants 19 30.6, 29 Carolina 16 20.2
59% 26 Los Angeles Rams 31 26.4, 23 Atlanta 27 22.3
59% 19 Denver 16 24.1, 27 Houston 9 19.6
59% 3 Tampa Bay 20 26.6, 6 New Orleans 10 22.2
56% 31 Dallas 20 20.4, 22 Cincinnati 17 17.5
51% 4 Philadelphia 24 29.3, 5 Minnesota 7 29.0
49% 25 Green Bay 27 17.1, 15 Chicago 10 17.6
48% 18 San Francisco 27 20.8, 9 Seattle 7 21.7
46% 28 Detroit 36 30.1, 16 Washington 27 31.3
41% 11 Miami 42 17.0, 7 Baltimore 38 22.4
40% 30 Jacksonville 24 22.4, 12 Indianapolis 0 26.9
40% 24 Arizona 29 31.6, 20 Las Vegas 23 40.4
40% 17 New England 17 17.8, 8 Pittsburgh 14 24.8
36% 32 New York Jets 31 17.3, 10 Cleveland 30 31.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.81 5 0.95 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 9.4 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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