prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
71% 12 Chicago 23 23.3, 32 Houston 20 14.0
63% 27 Minnesota 28 29.4, 24 Detroit 24 22.7
62% 5 Philadelphia 24 30.3, 25 Washington 8 25.0
59% 17 Denver 11 19.2, 8 San Francisco 10 18.0
52% 20 Cincinnati 27 23.4, 29 New York Jets 12 23.1
50% 26 Carolina 22 22.6, 30 New Orleans 14 22.6
50% 23 Cleveland 29 23.4, 15 Pittsburgh 17 23.4
46% 31 Tennessee 24 32.8, 18 Las Vegas 22 35.4
40% 4 Baltimore 37 22.0, 7 New England 26 25.2
39% 28 Jacksonville 38 20.8, 9 Los Angeles Chargers 10 26.2
39% 19 Dallas 23 19.2, 21 New York Giants 16 22.7
38% 11 Los Angeles Rams 20 22.9, 10 Arizona 12 27.2
38% 6 Miami 21 23.3, 1 Buffalo 19 29.5
37% 13 Atlanta 27 22.0, 14 Seattle 23 27.7
31% 16 Indianapolis 20 21.0, 2 Kansas City 17 32.3
30% 22 Green Bay 14 11.7, 3 Tampa Bay 12 24.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.92 8 0.40 2 0.71 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 6 9.7 0.62
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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