2022 Week 4 (29 Sep - 3 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 71%   5 Philadelphia            29 27.2,    22 Jacksonville            21 19.7
 65%  21 Dallas                  25 25.5,    29 Washington              10 18.4
 64%  15 San Francisco           24 22.4,    13 Los Angeles Rams         9 17.6
 62%   7 Green Bay               27 22.8,     9 New England             24 16.9
 61%  10 Atlanta                 23 29.8,    20 Cleveland               20 25.3
 60%   1 Buffalo                 23 27.8,     3 Baltimore               20 25.5
 59%  23 New York Giants         20 21.2,    18 Chicago                 12 19.6
 58%  12 Las Vegas               32 33.5,    28 Denver                  23 28.3

 49%   2 Kansas City             41 22.7,     6 Tampa Bay               31 22.8
 47%  19 Seattle                 48 26.9,    26 Detroit                 45 27.6
 44%  16 Cincinnati              27 22.1,     4 Miami                   15 23.2
 43%   8 Arizona                 26 22.8,    24 Carolina                16 24.1
 38%  30 Los Angeles Chargers    34 22.5,    32 Houston                 24 27.2
 37%  25 Minnesota               28 18.8,    17 New Orleans             25 24.5
 26%  27 Tennessee               24 17.5,    11 Indianapolis            17 26.0
 21%  31 New York Jets           24 16.6,    14 Pittsburgh              20 28.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 0.76   6 1.06   3 0.45   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16   8   9.9 0.80

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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