prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 1 Buffalo 38 32.4, 27 Pittsburgh 3 13.9
73% 3 Tampa Bay 21 29.2, 10 Atlanta 15 20.6
65% 13 Minnesota 29 24.6, 22 Chicago 22 18.1
65% 7 New England 29 36.0, 18 Detroit 0 25.5
64% 4 Baltimore 19 28.0, 14 Cincinnati 17 20.6
62% 16 San Francisco 37 21.3, 29 Carolina 15 17.6
61% 2 Kansas City 30 46.3, 15 Las Vegas 29 32.4
59% 23 New Orleans 39 25.7, 12 Seattle 32 23.9
51% 5 Philadelphia 20 25.7, 9 Arizona 17 25.4
43% 28 Tennessee 21 21.0, 31 Washington 17 22.3
39% 20 Dallas 22 18.8, 17 Los Angeles Rams 10 21.8
39% 11 Indianapolis 12 16.6, 26 Denver 9 19.1
38% 21 Los Angeles Chargers 30 24.6, 19 Cleveland 28 30.3
37% 30 New York Jets 40 21.0, 8 Miami 17 25.9
32% 32 Houston 13 17.6, 24 Jacksonville 6 28.4
28% 25 New York Giants 27 15.5, 6 Green Bay 22 26.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.20 10 0.79 3 0.89 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.2 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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