prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 16 Dallas 24 32.0, 25 Detroit 6 19.2
77% 5 Baltimore 23 33.0, 26 Cleveland 20 20.2
63% 7 Cincinnati 35 25.8, 10 Atlanta 17 21.8
62% 21 Miami 16 23.6, 27 Pittsburgh 10 19.2
61% 2 Kansas City 44 26.2, 11 San Francisco 23 23.3
60% 15 Arizona 42 26.1, 12 New Orleans 34 24.1
60% 13 Las Vegas 38 43.3, 32 Houston 20 31.5
57% 9 Seattle 37 29.9, 19 Los Angeles Chargers 23 28.0
49% 22 Tennessee 19 21.2, 14 Indianapolis 10 21.3
41% 30 Washington 23 19.8, 23 Green Bay 21 21.4
39% 18 New York Giants 23 20.2, 24 Jacksonville 17 22.7
38% 20 New York Jets 16 15.8, 29 Denver 9 19.7
33% 31 Carolina 21 18.5, 6 Tampa Bay 3 25.8
13% 28 Chicago 33 13.8, 3 New England 14 26.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.60 8 1.00 1 1.31 2 0.59 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 9.1 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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