prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 1 Buffalo 27 32.6, 23 Green Bay 17 14.4
70% 13 Atlanta 37 26.7, 30 Carolina 34 18.7
69% 4 Philadelphia 35 26.6, 28 Pittsburgh 13 17.8
67% 10 Minnesota 34 27.4, 11 Arizona 26 20.6
65% 16 Dallas 49 21.2, 21 Chicago 29 15.1
63% 19 Tennessee 17 24.1, 31 Houston 10 20.8
63% 6 Seattle 27 27.4, 17 New York Giants 13 22.4
60% 22 Miami 31 27.4, 29 Detroit 27 24.2
52% 8 New England 22 22.1, 18 New York Jets 17 21.7
49% 14 New Orleans 24 41.0, 9 Las Vegas 0 42.0
41% 3 Baltimore 27 23.1, 7 Tampa Bay 22 24.5
38% 15 San Francisco 31 19.5, 20 Los Angeles Rams 14 22.3
37% 32 Denver 21 14.7, 26 Jacksonville 17 18.8
36% 25 Cleveland 32 21.9, 5 Cincinnati 13 27.9
24% 27 Washington 17 16.2, 12 Indianapolis 16 24.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.61 9 1.04 3 0.90 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 9 9.6 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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