prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 2 Kansas City 27 35.4, 26 Jacksonville 17 17.5
73% 20 New York Giants 24 27.4, 32 Houston 16 17.1
70% 11 San Francisco 22 28.4, 21 Los Angeles Chargers 16 20.4
69% 15 Tennessee 17 20.7, 31 Denver 10 13.8
66% 13 Miami 39 28.7, 25 Cleveland 17 21.5
60% 10 Tampa Bay 21 25.7, 5 Seattle 16 23.8
59% 29 Pittsburgh 20 22.6, 14 New Orleans 10 21.3
47% 22 Green Bay 31 21.6, 8 Dallas 28 22.0
43% 24 Indianapolis 25 32.0, 16 Las Vegas 20 37.2
40% 30 Carolina 25 22.8, 18 Atlanta 15 25.0
35% 12 Arizona 27 20.3, 23 Los Angeles Rams 17 24.6
33% 27 Detroit 31 21.3, 19 Chicago 30 31.0
22% 9 Minnesota 33 17.8, 1 Buffalo 30 31.1
15% 28 Washington 32 16.5, 3 Philadelphia 21 28.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.87 6 0.76 2 0.66 2 0.60 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.4 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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