prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 3 Baltimore 13 32.2, 30 Carolina 3 16.4
82% 2 Buffalo 31 34.7, 25 Cleveland 23 16.8
67% 8 New England 10 25.1, 15 New York Jets 3 16.8
64% 18 New Orleans 27 23.8, 24 Los Angeles Rams 20 18.9
64% 1 Kansas City 30 33.4, 22 Los Angeles Chargers 27 23.6
60% 26 Washington 23 22.9, 32 Houston 10 20.9
60% 21 Atlanta 27 24.4, 19 Chicago 24 22.6
60% 7 Cincinnati 37 23.1, 29 Pittsburgh 30 20.8
59% 4 Philadelphia 17 22.8, 23 Indianapolis 16 21.3
49% 16 Las Vegas 22 31.8, 31 Denver 16 32.2
39% 14 Tennessee 27 20.5, 20 Green Bay 17 23.1
38% 13 San Francisco 38 22.3, 12 Arizona 10 24.4
36% 9 Dallas 40 21.9, 6 Minnesota 3 26.8
29% 28 Detroit 31 20.2, 17 New York Giants 18 29.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.31 7 0.90 1 0.00 2 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.1 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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