prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 1 Kansas City 26 32.6, 25 Los Angeles Rams 10 17.0
81% 5 Dallas 28 26.8, 22 New York Giants 20 16.1
78% 11 Miami 30 30.7, 32 Houston 15 18.0
72% 3 Philadelphia 40 29.2, 21 Green Bay 33 19.4
69% 2 Buffalo 28 32.6, 24 Detroit 25 21.7
64% 12 San Francisco 13 25.3, 16 New Orleans 0 19.8
63% 17 New York Jets 31 24.3, 18 Chicago 10 19.2
62% 27 Washington 19 23.1, 19 Atlanta 13 19.5
56% 9 Minnesota 33 23.0, 8 New England 26 22.2
48% 30 Carolina 23 16.9, 31 Denver 10 17.2
41% 15 Las Vegas 40 36.1, 6 Seattle 34 42.2
41% 7 Cincinnati 20 22.6, 13 Tennessee 16 24.0
38% 26 Cleveland 23 22.7, 10 Tampa Bay 17 26.1
37% 20 Los Angeles Chargers 25 23.7, 14 Arizona 24 29.3
36% 29 Pittsburgh 24 16.7, 23 Indianapolis 17 22.0
35% 28 Jacksonville 28 19.9, 4 Baltimore 27 25.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.44 8 0.78 2 1.34 2 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.5 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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