prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 6 Baltimore 17 27.8, 21 Atlanta 9 17.0
78% 8 Minnesota 27 29.3, 29 New York Giants 24 20.0
74% 7 San Francisco 37 24.0, 28 Washington 20 14.5
69% 1 Kansas City 24 34.2, 10 Seattle 10 22.7
64% 2 Buffalo 35 28.0, 23 Chicago 13 20.4
62% 27 Los Angeles Rams 51 17.8, 31 Denver 14 14.0
59% 4 Dallas 40 28.2, 3 Philadelphia 34 26.8
51% 30 Carolina 37 24.4, 13 Detroit 23 24.2
50% 24 Pittsburgh 13 35.6, 11 Las Vegas 10 35.9
45% 14 New Orleans 17 22.6, 19 Cleveland 10 23.4
41% 16 Tampa Bay 19 22.8, 15 Arizona 16 24.1
40% 5 Cincinnati 22 21.2, 9 New England 18 23.9
39% 17 Los Angeles Chargers 20 22.3, 25 Indianapolis 3 25.0
37% 20 Green Bay 26 22.3, 12 Miami 20 27.1
28% 26 Jacksonville 19 18.0, 18 New York Jets 3 26.0
23% 32 Houston 19 17.3, 22 Tennessee 14 27.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.73 6 0.79 4 0.67 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.4 0.77
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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