prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 1 Kansas City 27 31.0, 31 Denver 24 13.9
74% 9 New England 23 26.8, 12 Miami 21 18.3
71% 16 Tampa Bay 30 24.9, 27 Carolina 24 17.9
63% 20 Atlanta 20 25.3, 17 Arizona 19 22.3
63% 10 Seattle 23 25.7, 23 New York Jets 6 19.6
63% 5 Dallas 27 25.6, 25 Tennessee 13 21.4
62% 18 Detroit 41 27.3, 22 Chicago 10 23.0
61% 29 New York Giants 38 22.8, 30 Indianapolis 10 20.3
60% 19 Green Bay 41 27.9, 8 Minnesota 17 25.9
60% 13 Los Angeles Chargers 31 23.4, 15 Los Angeles Rams 10 21.2
49% 26 Jacksonville 31 23.4, 32 Houston 3 23.6
46% 6 San Francisco 37 35.5, 11 Las Vegas 34 38.4
37% 21 Cleveland 24 19.2, 28 Washington 10 22.3
30% 14 New Orleans 20 19.8, 3 Philadelphia 10 29.6
27% 24 Pittsburgh 16 15.4, 7 Baltimore 13 23.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 8 1.42 4 0.69 1 1.15 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 10 9.7 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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