prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 2 Buffalo 27 29.4, 26 New York Jets 10 14.7
73% 1 Kansas City 28 27.1, 31 Denver 24 18.2
69% 18 Tampa Bay 41 24.8, 27 Carolina 17 18.6
68% 7 Minnesota 31 30.3, 25 Chicago 17 21.5
62% 23 Jacksonville 26 25.5, 30 Indianapolis 11 20.0
60% 28 Tennessee 28 22.8, 32 Houston 25 20.7
60% 14 Detroit 37 27.5, 15 Green Bay 30 25.8
59% 11 Las Vegas 35 42.7, 12 Los Angeles Chargers 32 35.7
58% 6 San Francisco 27 21.8, 22 Los Angeles Rams 24 20.6
53% 9 Seattle 38 25.4, 17 Arizona 30 25.0
52% 16 New Orleans 30 21.7, 21 Atlanta 20 21.4
40% 13 Miami 33 21.8, 8 New England 24 23.7
40% 4 Dallas 51 25.5, 3 Philadelphia 26 28.1
37% 20 Cleveland 21 22.1, 5 Cincinnati 16 26.3
36% 29 Washington 22 17.6, 19 New York Giants 7 22.3
32% 24 Pittsburgh 16 15.5, 10 Baltimore 13 22.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.77 9 0.70 1 1.38 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.1 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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