prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 9 St. Louis 38 30.6, 30 Cincinnati 10 13.8
77% 29 New York Giants 16 19.4, 31 Philadelphia 15 8.9
76% 6 Dallas 35 26.5, 25 Arizona 7 16.4
71% 8 Jacksonville 17 25.8, 28 Pittsburgh 3 18.4
65% 2 Minnesota 21 22.9, 7 Tampa Bay 14 16.4
52% 14 New England 19 18.9, 20 Cleveland 7 18.5
39% 24 Chicago 14 15.0, 16 New Orleans 10 17.3
34% 23 Baltimore 19 14.9, 18 Atlanta 13 19.7
34% 11 Buffalo 23 16.3, 4 Miami 18 20.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.93 4 0.39 3 1.34 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 9 6 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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