prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 8 Buffalo 24 23.8, 28 Pittsburgh 21 10.5
63% 16 San Diego 20 18.7, 25 Detroit 10 15.3
50% 5 Jacksonville 16 19.7, 9 New York Jets 6 19.6
36% 21 Kansas City 16 19.4, 12 New England 14 23.9
36% 20 Atlanta 20 14.5, 17 New Orleans 17 18.9
35% 4 St. Louis 42 20.8, 1 San Francisco 20 27.0
23% 23 Chicago 24 15.5, 2 Minnesota 22 29.4
20% 30 Cincinnati 18 10.4, 24 Cleveland 17 23.4
13% 31 Philadelphia 13 6.7, 3 Dallas 10 27.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.99 4 0.39 1 0.00 3 0.40 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 9 3 0.48
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net