prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 1 Jacksonville 24 30.8, 30 Cleveland 7 3.8
81% 19 Pittsburgh 17 25.5, 31 Cincinnati 3 11.9
76% 6 Washington 24 34.2, 27 Arizona 10 23.7
73% 2 St. Louis 41 24.8, 18 Atlanta 13 16.3
58% 5 Miami 31 20.4, 16 New England 30 18.9
57% 15 San Diego 13 18.4, 13 Seattle 10 17.1
49% 14 Tennessee 24 17.5, 23 New Orleans 21 17.7
42% 20 Denver 31 22.5, 10 Green Bay 10 24.1
41% 12 Indianapolis 16 21.0, 11 New York Jets 13 22.8
39% 9 Carolina 31 23.1, 7 San Francisco 29 26.4
33% 25 Detroit 25 18.8, 4 Minnesota 23 24.6
24% 28 New York Giants 13 13.3, 8 Dallas 10 22.1
23% 22 Oakland 20 13.4, 3 Buffalo 14 22.5
18% 29 Philadelphia 20 7.4, 24 Chicago 16 20.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.70 2 0.00 4 0.66 2 0.61 1 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 6 0.62
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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