prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 2 Jacksonville 41 34.3, 31 Cincinnati 10 6.6
78% 8 Kansas City 34 21.4, 25 San Diego 0 11.2
74% 5 Washington 48 29.8, 18 Chicago 22 21.2
71% 14 New England 27 21.1, 29 Arizona 3 14.6
71% 11 Buffalo 13 20.1, 27 Baltimore 10 13.7
64% 15 Detroit 20 16.8, 16 Tampa Bay 3 13.0
54% 24 Atlanta 27 19.3, 22 Carolina 20 18.6
45% 4 Minnesota 23 21.6, 6 Denver 20 22.6
43% 23 New York Giants 23 11.6, 26 Philadelphia 17 12.7
41% 13 Indianapolis 34 21.5, 3 Dallas 24 23.4
41% 12 Miami 16 20.1, 10 Oakland 9 21.7
39% 9 Seattle 27 19.6, 7 Green Bay 7 22.1
21% 30 Cleveland 21 9.2, 28 New Orleans 16 19.9
19% 19 Tennessee 24 17.9, 1 St. Louis 21 32.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.35 2 0.80 5 1.07 1 0.00 1 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 7 0.73
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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