prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 1 St. Louis 23 38.1, 28 San Francisco 7 17.5
87% 3 Jacksonville 41 26.5, 27 New Orleans 23 5.4
83% 16 Baltimore 34 24.5, 31 Cincinnati 31 9.2
77% 5 Indianapolis 44 28.3, 25 Philadelphia 17 18.1
75% 18 Tampa Bay 19 17.9, 24 Atlanta 10 10.9
71% 23 Chicago 23 18.5, 30 San Diego 20 12.0
68% 22 Carolina 31 24.5, 29 Cleveland 17 18.1
65% 15 Washington 23 29.6, 19 New York Giants 13 24.5
62% 7 Miami 27 20.0, 10 New England 17 17.1
61% 11 Denver 27 20.9, 12 Oakland 21 18.2
55% 20 Tennessee 16 14.2, 17 Pittsburgh 10 13.4
42% 21 Green Bay 26 18.7, 13 Detroit 17 20.1
38% 6 Seattle 31 17.2, 4 Kansas City 19 20.2
26% 14 New York Jets 17 10.9, 2 Buffalo 7 18.0
22% 26 Arizona 13 10.4, 9 Dallas 9 20.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.88 5 1.26 5 0.80 3 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 11 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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