prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 2 Jacksonville 24 33.7, 31 Cleveland 14 9.5
84% 7 Baltimore 31 33.2, 29 New Orleans 8 16.1
83% 17 Carolina 41 33.4, 30 San Francisco 24 17.6
83% 1 St. Louis 31 32.1, 20 New York Giants 10 16.6
80% 5 Kansas City 35 22.1, 23 Pittsburgh 19 10.3
76% 6 Buffalo 31 18.8, 24 Arizona 21 10.6
76% 3 Indianapolis 24 36.3, 18 Washington 21 26.0
74% 16 Miami 12 24.1, 27 San Diego 9 15.8
66% 21 Tennessee 30 21.9, 25 Atlanta 17 17.0
66% 10 Denver 36 21.8, 19 Seattle 30 16.8
64% 8 Minnesota 24 27.1, 14 Green Bay 20 22.6
45% 13 Oakland 45 16.5, 4 Tampa Bay 0 17.4
38% 22 Chicago 28 18.5, 12 Detroit 10 21.9
34% 15 New York Jets 22 13.5, 9 Dallas 21 17.7
26% 26 Philadelphia 24 12.1, 11 New England 9 19.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 5 0.92 5 1.05 3 1.20 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 11 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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