prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 42 Louisiana Tech 63 58.3, 224 Mississippi Valley Sta 10 12.8
90% 4 Kansas State 27 46.1, 118 Iowa 7 8.4
85% 3 Florida State 29 36.6, 40 Brigham Young 3 16.7
78% 81 Texas Tech 24 29.5, 122 New Mexico 3 17.8
21% 36 Southern California 29 16.4, 8 Penn State 5 29.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 0 0.00 2 0.64 1 1.18 2 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 5 4 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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