prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 53 Syracuse 63 47.1, 226 Buffalo 7 3.6
92% 26 Clemson 38 47.3, 217 The Citadel 0 3.6
92% 17 Marshall 63 49.3, 205 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 4.5
92% 16 Minnesota 47 44.7, 185 Northeast Louisiana 10 3.9
92% 9 Florida 40 55.7, 214 Ball State 19 3.2
92% 6 Miami - Florida 61 47.1, 159 McNeese State 14 3.6
91% 80 Duquesne 57 51.4, 234 Virginia Military 31 7.4
91% 2 Virginia Tech 52 57.8, 154 Akron 23 7.2
91% 1 Nebraska 49 63.7, 179 San Jose State 13 7.5
90% 57 Louisiana State 58 42.5, 207 Western Carolina 0 9.7
90% 55 Air Force 55 44.9, 210 California State - Nor 6 11.9
90% 39 Oregon State 21 42.3, 177 Eastern Washington 19 11.6
90% 20 Purdue 48 49.5, 187 Central Michigan 0 13.0
90% 10 Michigan 42 47.7, 149 Bowling Green 7 14.5
89% 171 Texas Southern 42 35.6, 235 Prairie View 0 6.0
89% 29 Illinois 35 46.6, 181 Middle Tennessee State 6 16.6
89% 19 Arkansas 38 40.9, 121 Southwest Missouri Sta 0 14.0
89% 15 Oklahoma 55 44.6, 126 Texas - El Paso 14 15.6
89% 7 Wisconsin 19 42.3, 92 Western Michigan 7 13.9
88% 89 Pittsburgh 30 41.1, 206 Kent State 7 15.2
87% 116 South Florida 40 39.1, 216 Jacksonville State 0 15.4
87% 104 Tennessee State 39 43.8, 209 Alabama State 13 18.9
87% 22 Oregon 36 54.7, 163 Nevada - Reno 7 21.6
86% 23 Florida A&M 49 51.9, 194 Delaware State 21 20.6
85% 47 Jackson State 34 46.3, 186 Howard 16 22.6
84% 31 Mississippi 49 41.6, 127 Tulane 20 21.1
83% 93 North Carolina 30 30.4, 174 Tulsa 9 13.5
83% 85 North Carolina State 38 33.4, 164 Arkansas State 31 15.9
83% 66 Iowa State 25 33.0, 140 Ohio 15 16.0
83% 35 Washington 44 36.1, 112 Idaho 20 18.9
82% 34 Massachusetts 36 34.2, 101 William & Mary 16 17.8
82% 4 Kansas State 54 45.4, 41 Louisiana Tech 10 22.9
81% 146 Sacramento State 24 37.1, 227 Saint Mary's 21 19.8
81% 24 Georgia Tech 21 44.0, 107 Central Florida 17 25.6
80% 143 Towson 36 34.7, 220 Fordham 13 18.9
80% 32 East Carolina 38 34.6, 129 Duke 0 19.2
79% 97 Delaware 29 29.1, 188 Rhode Island 7 15.6
79% 79 Texas Tech 38 29.3, 135 Utah State 16 16.1
79% 5 Tennessee 19 26.4, 18 Southern Mississippi 16 14.1
77% 219 La Salle 14 26.2, 233 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 15.0
77% 151 Grambling 29 39.1, 195 Alcorn State 6 27.1
76% 165 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 40 25.3, 224 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 12.0
76% 91 Troy State 28 24.8, 166 Alabama A&M 13 14.4
76% 88 Cincinnati 23 32.1, 133 Army 17 21.3
75% 28 Ohio State 43 27.3, 51 Fresno State 10 17.8
74% 68 Boise State 31 30.2, 124 New Mexico 14 21.1
74% 37 Stanford 24 32.9, 103 Washington State 10 23.6
73% 42 Auburn 35 25.4, 75 Wyoming 21 17.1
71% 153 Sam Houston State 21 33.0, 208 Southwestern Louisiana 14 24.7
71% 117 Northwestern 35 24.2, 152 Northern Illinois 10 17.0
69% 54 West Virginia 34 30.0, 74 Boston College 14 23.2
67% 45 Furman 16 26.4, 62 Elon 3 20.3
67% 27 Mississippi State 17 14.7, 64 Memphis State 3 8.8
64% 162 Eastern Michigan 32 31.3, 175 Connecticut 25 26.3
62% 122 South Carolina 31 19.8, 132 New Mexico State 0 16.5
62% 49 Louisville 40 40.1, 59 Kentucky 34 35.6
61% 131 Murray State 42 47.0, 138 Southern Illinois 20 42.7
60% 99 Rice 30 19.1, 82 Houston 27 17.1
59% 43 Brigham Young 38 28.9, 67 Virginia 35 26.6
55% 113 New Hampshire 31 24.2, 130 Hampton 17 23.2
53% 169 East Tennessee State 37 22.3, 192 Liberty 20 21.8
52% 36 Notre Dame 24 21.4, 25 Texas A&M 10 21.0
49% 173 Tennessee - Chattanoog 23 29.3, 158 Samford 6 29.6
45% 134 Richmond 10 23.4, 114 Bucknell 7 24.3
45% 50 Hofstra 10 30.4, 58 Montana 9 31.4
40% 98 Missouri 50 26.8, 70 Western Illinois 20 29.0
39% 119 Southern Methodist 31 19.6, 86 Kansas 17 22.2
38% 199 Baylor 20 14.5, 203 North Texas 7 17.9
36% 69 Appalachian State 20 15.6, 63 Wake Forest 16 19.7
34% 160 Northwestern State 31 17.9, 110 Southern 14 23.1
33% 96 Miami - Ohio 33 19.5, 76 Vanderbilt 30 25.6
33% 65 Arizona State 10 18.4, 48 San Diego State 7 23.7
31% 38 Georgia 29 29.2, 12 Georgia Southern 7 36.8
30% 44 Colorado State 28 24.4, 21 Colorado 24 31.9
24% 60 Arizona 17 22.6, 30 Utah 3 32.8
22% 198 Eastern Illinois 42 20.5, 155 Indiana State 24 33.0
22% 196 Rutgers 34 24.3, 106 Villanova 21 37.5
22% 161 Temple 17 16.4, 109 Navy 6 28.5
21% 81 California - Los Angel 35 18.6, 14 Alabama 24 32.6
14% 83 Toledo 24 7.5, 8 Penn State 6 34.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.00 15 0.72 20 0.98 23 1.12 13 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 80 62 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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