rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 168 Samford 237 Tennessee - Martin 19 East Carolina 136 Tulane 170 East Tennessee State 231 Virginia Military 4 Florida State 59 North Carolina 2 Kansas State 201 Ball State 57 Oklahoma State 191 Southwest Texas State 21 Texas A&M 121 Texas - El Paso 77 Texas Tech 214 Southwestern Louisiana 38 Toledo 178 Eastern Illinois 68 Troy State 208 Alabama State 1 Virginia Tech 145 Rutgers 34 Florida A&M 205 South Carolina State 129 Southern 236 Prairie View 80-90% chance of victory: 17 Arkansas 50 Boise State 30 Minnesota 194 Baylor 140 Connecticut 229 Buffalo 223 Butler 234 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 12 Clemson 85 Wake Forest 55 Virginia 190 Duke 157 Eastern Washington 224 Idaho State 32 Georgia Southern 152 Wofford 33 Georgia Tech 126 Navy 23 Illinois 75 California 88 Youngstown State 209 Kent State 40 Lehigh 132 Pennsylvania 13 Michigan State 99 Missouri 62 Montana 195 California Poly 189 Northeast Louisiana 228 Nicholls State 113 Ohio 179 Tennessee Tech 16 Ohio State 78 Miami - Ohio 24 Oregon 105 Idaho 92 Rice 177 Tulsa 39 Massachusetts 154 Richmond 71 Robert Morris 207 Monmouth 198 Central Connecticut 233 Sacred Heart 72 South Carolina 166 Eastern Michigan 158 Tennessee - Chattanooga 227 Mississippi Valley State 109 Towson 212 Morgan State 117 Villanova 225 Norfolk State 73 Western Michigan 196 Indiana State 9 Wisconsin 93 Cincinnati 108 Wyoming 187 Central Michigan 70-80% chance of victory: 41 Arizona 74 San Diego State 60 Memphis State 164 Arkansas State 123 Brown 176 San Diego 116 Bucknell 147 Cornell 10 Michigan 64 California - Los Angeles 141 Northern Arizona 210 California State - North 120 Colgate 213 Dartmouth 76 Duquesne 118 Fairfield 58 Elon 149 Western Kentucky 43 Furman 97 William & Mary 47 Hofstra 82 Delaware 86 Houston 161 Army 184 Iona 220 La Salle 53 Kentucky 100 Indiana 94 Louisiana Tech 124 Stephen F. Austin 153 Maine 185 Howard 122 Murray State 197 Middle Tennessee State 221 Montana State 226 Weber State 181 Nevada - Las Vegas 200 North Texas 8 Penn State 80 Pittsburgh 142 Illinois State 202 Southeast Missouri State 95 Northern Iowa 171 Southern Illinois 14 Texas 54 Stanford 127 Saint John's 192 Stony Brook 56 Utah 111 Washington State 48 West Virginia 79 Maryland 103 Western Illinois 150 Sam Houston State 60-70% chance of victory: 25 Mississippi State 49 Brigham Young 83 Central Florida 163 Akron 36 Auburn 44 Louisiana State 230 Saint Peter's 235 Canisius 28 Colorado 29 Washington 138 Harvard 143 Holy Cross 102 Kansas 107 Alabama - Birmingham 186 Lafayette 182 Princeton 160 Gardner - Webb 199 Liberty 87 North Carolina State 119 Southern Methodist 106 Portland State 148 Sacramento State 137 San Jose State 135 Southern Utah 101 South Florida 91 James Madison 128 Temple 162 Bowling Green 5 Tennessee 7 Florida 46 Texas Christian 61 Northwestern 219 The Citadel 217 Western Carolina 37 Mississippi 81 Vanderbilt 112 Georgetown 159 Wagner 84 Yale 89 Dayton 50-60% chance of victory: 22 Alabama 18 Southern Mississippi 175 Alabama A&M 174 Grambling 42 Colorado State 51 Arizona State 206 Columbia 193 Fordham 70 Iowa State 110 Iowa 156 McNeese State 131 Southwest Missouri State 115 New Hampshire 114 Northeastern 139 New Mexico 165 New Mexico State 27 Notre Dame 20 Purdue 66 Jackson State 96 Tennessee State
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