prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 168 Samford 49 54.8, 237 Tennessee - Martin 17 5.1
92% 129 Southern 56 46.4, 236 Prairie View 6 4.6
92% 77 Texas Tech 26 40.8, 214 Southwestern Louisiana 0 10.2
92% 68 Troy State 62 42.0, 208 Alabama State 19 12.3
92% 34 Florida A&M 64 53.9, 205 South Carolina State 9 19.3
92% 2 Kansas State 76 60.8, 201 Ball State 0 2.6
92% 1 Virginia Tech 49 57.1, 145 Rutgers 0 7.9
91% 38 Toledo 31 39.2, 178 Eastern Illinois 26 6.7
91% 21 Texas A&M 45 38.7, 121 Texas - El Paso 17 12.2
90% 170 East Tennessee State 38 38.1, 231 Virginia Military 3 8.4
90% 117 Villanova 42 41.7, 225 Norfolk State 0 12.0
90% 57 Oklahoma State 23 34.8, 191 Southwest Texas State 0 6.7
90% 19 East Carolina 37 46.4, 136 Tulane 17 18.7
90% 4 Florida State 63 37.0, 59 North Carolina 14 6.8
89% 140 Connecticut 24 40.0, 229 Buffalo 21 13.7
89% 71 Robert Morris 23 36.4, 207 Monmouth 7 7.3
89% 9 Wisconsin 28 33.9, 93 Cincinnati 25 6.1
88% 109 Towson 31 39.3, 212 Morgan State 7 16.5
88% 40 Lehigh 17 37.9, 132 Pennsylvania 10 15.4
88% 30 Minnesota 34 40.7, 194 Baylor 9 8.6
87% 158 Tennessee - Chattanoog 72 40.9, 227 Mississippi Valley Sta 17 14.1
87% 73 Western Michigan 56 43.0, 196 Indiana State 0 19.0
87% 62 Montana 53 41.4, 195 California Poly 3 15.8
87% 33 Georgia Tech 40 40.4, 126 Navy 13 17.4
87% 12 Clemson 55 34.0, 85 Wake Forest 7 9.3
86% 24 Oregon 42 43.6, 105 Idaho 13 21.4
86% 16 Ohio State 27 35.7, 78 Miami - Ohio 16 16.2
85% 72 South Carolina 41 27.4, 166 Eastern Michigan 6 9.7
85% 55 Virginia 26 39.6, 190 Duke 10 20.0
85% 32 Georgia Southern 24 44.0, 152 Wofford 17 18.2
84% 157 Eastern Washington 38 41.8, 224 Idaho State 7 20.5
84% 88 Youngstown State 26 34.9, 209 Kent State 20 17.0
82% 189 Northeast Louisiana 27 28.0, 228 Nicholls State 21 6.4
82% 113 Ohio 52 24.4, 179 Tennessee Tech 14 9.9
81% 223 Butler 41 30.9, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 15.1
81% 108 Wyoming 31 31.8, 187 Central Michigan 10 15.0
81% 23 Illinois 17 29.6, 75 California 15 13.2
81% 17 Arkansas 38 32.0, 50 Boise State 31 17.2
81% 13 Michigan State 13 40.0, 99 Missouri 10 21.5
80% 43 Furman 34 33.6, 97 William & Mary 10 18.0
79% 86 Houston 31 29.6, 161 Army 30 15.7
78% 60 Memphis State 19 26.6, 164 Arkansas State 17 12.8
77% 123 Brown 36 30.3, 176 San Diego 20 19.2
77% 53 Kentucky 41 41.1, 100 Indiana 34 29.7
77% 48 West Virginia 30 29.2, 79 Maryland 17 18.4
76% 141 Northern Arizona 49 37.0, 210 California State - Nor 26 26.4
76% 120 Colgate 42 30.9, 213 Dartmouth 24 16.4
76% 103 Western Illinois 31 33.3, 150 Sam Houston State 0 20.9
75% 181 Nevada - Las Vegas 38 18.8, 200 North Texas 0 11.3
74% 153 Maine 38 37.6, 185 Howard 21 27.9
73% 76 Duquesne 21 34.7, 118 Fairfield 20 24.5
73% 41 Arizona 17 25.1, 74 San Diego State 3 15.8
72% 127 Saint John's 28 18.6, 192 Stony Brook 6 10.9
71% 116 Bucknell 38 24.7, 147 Cornell 15 17.0
70% 87 North Carolina State 41 24.4, 119 Southern Methodist 0 16.3
69% 230 Saint Peter's 13 21.1, 235 Canisius 0 14.7
69% 128 Temple 31 25.7, 162 Bowling Green 14 17.9
69% 37 Mississippi 12 27.1, 81 Vanderbilt 7 19.7
67% 46 Texas Christian 41 22.0, 61 Northwestern 14 15.7
64% 112 Georgetown 28 25.1, 159 Wagner 21 20.2
64% 102 Kansas 23 26.3, 107 Alabama - Birmingham 20 21.3
63% 84 Yale 42 28.0, 89 Dayton 6 24.2
62% 106 Portland State 35 36.2, 148 Sacramento State 23 32.5
61% 219 The Citadel 17 20.3, 217 Western Carolina 10 17.8
61% 101 South Florida 26 18.9, 91 James Madison 7 16.2
61% 36 Auburn 34 22.1, 44 Louisiana State 17 18.5
61% 25 Mississippi State 44 19.0, 49 Brigham Young 28 16.2
60% 186 Lafayette 24 19.2, 182 Princeton 17 16.9
60% 137 San Jose State 47 40.5, 135 Southern Utah 7 37.6
60% 115 New Hampshire 24 30.9, 114 Northeastern 7 28.2
59% 70 Iowa State 24 21.3, 110 Iowa 14 19.5
59% 66 Jackson State 42 30.0, 96 Tennessee State 39 27.9
54% 206 Columbia 43 21.6, 193 Fordham 26 20.8
54% 139 New Mexico 16 23.4, 165 New Mexico State 13 22.7
51% 27 Notre Dame 23 27.5, 20 Purdue 21 27.4
50% 156 McNeese State 26 21.2, 131 Southwest Missouri Sta 19 21.2
45% 18 Southern Mississippi 21 19.5, 22 Alabama 0 20.4
43% 51 Arizona State 13 22.0, 42 Colorado State 10 23.5
40% 174 Grambling 17 19.8, 175 Alabama A&M 14 22.2
40% 29 Washington 17 26.3, 28 Colorado 14 28.8
37% 143 Holy Cross 27 19.2, 138 Harvard 25 23.4
36% 7 Florida 27 19.5, 5 Tennessee 23 25.1
33% 199 Liberty 19 21.2, 160 Gardner - Webb 8 26.8
31% 163 Akron 35 19.7, 83 Central Florida 24 26.7
29% 202 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 21.8, 142 Illinois State 25 30.9
29% 124 Stephen F. Austin 34 33.1, 94 Louisiana Tech 31 41.8
28% 226 Weber State 28 20.3, 221 Montana State 7 28.6
28% 171 Southern Illinois 34 33.7, 95 Northern Iowa 14 41.9
26% 197 Middle Tennessee State 44 25.9, 122 Murray State 28 35.7
25% 82 Delaware 44 19.3, 47 Hofstra 14 31.5
24% 220 La Salle 29 16.0, 184 Iona 22 28.7
24% 111 Washington State 38 13.6, 56 Utah 21 24.4
24% 54 Stanford 27 23.8, 14 Texas 24 35.8
22% 80 Pittsburgh 12 12.4, 8 Penn State 0 29.7
21% 149 Western Kentucky 23 9.7, 58 Elon 0 27.9
20% 64 California - Los Angel 23 18.9, 10 Michigan 20 32.2
17% 233 Sacred Heart 34 15.6, 198 Central Connecticut 6 33.0
15% 177 Tulsa 23 17.2, 92 Rice 16 35.1
13% 154 Richmond 31 12.8, 39 Massachusetts 24 33.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.25 20 1.17 27 0.74 29 1.05 13 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 99 76 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net