prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 160 Alabama State 51 48.3, 234 Prairie View 21 17.4
92% 154 Monmouth 41 34.3, 237 Saint Francis - Pennsy 6 -0.2
92% 143 Hampton 47 35.0, 225 Norfolk State 19 6.8
92% 132 Tennessee State 33 65.8, 236 Tennessee - Martin 6 4.6
92% 131 Tennessee - Chattanoog 27 47.3, 226 Virginia Military 14 17.8
92% 118 Jackson State 64 52.8, 233 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 9.6
92% 104 Northwestern State 27 40.9, 231 Nicholls State 21 6.5
92% 87 Fairfield 24 43.6, 232 Saint Peter's 10 2.2
92% 77 Montana 34 46.4, 215 California State - Nor 30 18.7
92% 76 Furman 33 36.6, 210 The Citadel 7 3.6
92% 73 Bucknell 42 40.6, 202 Lafayette 30 8.0
92% 68 Hofstra 42 46.9, 213 Liberty 14 10.2
92% 56 Portland State 59 50.8, 206 Idaho State 21 17.1
92% 31 East Carolina 42 44.5, 168 Army 21 13.7
92% 29 Notre Dame 45 37.1, 176 Navy 14 5.6
92% 23 Georgia Tech 52 41.0, 145 Wake Forest 20 11.1
92% 11 Georgia 29 31.0, 115 Vanderbilt 19 3.4
92% 9 Clemson 35 44.0, 101 Maryland 14 15.4
92% 6 Southern Mississippi 56 45.1, 138 Tulane 24 10.0
92% 1 Florida State 63 65.9, 188 Duke 14 1.6
91% 147 Sacramento State 24 41.0, 230 Montana State 13 10.6
91% 119 Bethune - Cookman 42 48.9, 229 South Carolina State 14 16.3
91% 97 Elon 43 30.8, 205 Samford 21 3.8
91% 62 Troy State 31 30.1, 180 Southwest Texas State 7 4.4
90% 123 Texas Southern 16 35.4, 220 Alcorn State 13 10.3
90% 89 McNeese State 28 36.4, 193 Jacksonville State 0 10.3
90% 39 Boise State 41 43.6, 152 Eastern Washington 23 17.3
90% 22 Texas A&M 24 34.5, 148 Baylor 0 8.5
90% 19 Delaware 28 40.2, 149 William & Mary 17 14.5
89% 150 Middle Tennessee State 28 41.3, 223 Northeast Louisiana 0 18.1
89% 80 Ohio 44 38.0, 198 Kent State 7 15.5
89% 7 Nebraska 56 34.5, 70 Texas Tech 3 13.3
89% 5 Virginia Tech 48 41.0, 49 West Virginia 20 17.3
87% 146 Wagner 24 34.9, 224 Central Connecticut 7 15.8
87% 75 Duquesne 44 40.0, 156 Georgetown 20 19.9
86% 120 Wofford 40 39.5, 194 Western Carolina 31 20.0
86% 13 Arizona 53 31.4, 71 Washington State 47 12.4
85% 127 Towson 38 35.7, 195 Howard 6 16.9
85% 94 Massachusetts 33 41.0, 179 Maine 10 20.7
85% 37 Colorado State 20 23.8, 110 Nevada - Las Vegas 19 6.0
84% 91 Yale 24 31.1, 182 Fordham 17 15.1
84% 83 Air Force 51 35.8, 187 Wyoming 34 19.3
84% 33 Louisville 38 36.3, 106 Cincinnati 24 17.6
83% 69 Fresno State 58 32.7, 139 Nevada - Reno 21 15.3
82% 107 Miami - Ohio 24 31.9, 178 Bowling Green 10 15.9
82% 92 Idaho 42 40.8, 155 Arkansas State 25 24.7
82% 85 Western Kentucky 17 23.5, 151 Tennessee Tech 14 6.7
81% 114 Youngstown State 28 31.8, 170 Northern Iowa 24 17.3
80% 153 Sacred Heart 23 32.1, 222 Stony Brook 6 15.8
80% 65 Central Florida 34 22.4, 126 Eastern Kentucky 3 8.8
80% 44 Illinois 31 32.6, 103 Iowa 0 18.1
79% 24 Michigan 58 40.3, 67 Indiana 0 27.5
78% 158 Marist 27 34.8, 197 Iona 7 21.9
78% 36 Oregon State 38 28.7, 63 Stanford 6 17.4
75% 199 Charleston Southern 42 28.2, 228 Austin Peay 20 18.8
75% 28 Boston College 20 32.3, 52 Syracuse 13 22.6
74% 18 Washington 21 29.9, 54 Arizona State 15 21.1
73% 58 Lehigh 45 29.8, 117 Harvard 13 21.3
71% 189 Louisiana Tech 48 33.9, 201 Southwestern Louisiana 14 25.9
71% 183 Illinois State 21 26.6, 218 Indiana State 0 19.2
71% 136 New Mexico State 42 23.9, 159 Tulsa 28 16.1
71% 55 Louisiana State 34 30.3, 82 Kentucky 0 22.6
71% 46 Northern Illinois 52 32.6, 109 Akron 35 24.8
71% 43 Georgia Southern 34 27.7, 61 Appalachian State 28 20.1
70% 10 Florida 38 29.0, 17 Auburn 7 20.9
69% 14 Oregon 28 26.3, 42 Southern California 17 19.8
68% 122 Pennsylvania 43 29.9, 142 Columbia 25 23.3
68% 35 North Carolina State 38 28.5, 78 North Carolina 20 22.2
67% 171 Ball State 33 27.2, 186 Eastern Michigan 14 20.4
67% 121 Eastern Illinois 48 36.0, 141 Murray State 7 29.9
67% 86 Western Illinois 14 25.2, 137 Southwest Missouri Sta 10 19.4
65% 41 Toledo 42 22.4, 53 Marshall 0 17.0
62% 165 Hawaii 30 20.7, 166 Southern Methodist 15 17.3
62% 59 Iowa State 33 27.5, 102 Oklahoma State 26 23.6
61% 81 Alabama - Birmingham 13 11.8, 74 Memphis State 9 9.6
60% 40 South Carolina 27 18.8, 38 Arkansas 7 16.9
59% 157 Davidson 27 22.0, 190 San Diego 13 19.8
58% 60 Robert Morris 17 25.6, 88 Dayton 13 24.0
56% 200 Valparaiso 33 36.3, 192 Butler 7 35.2
56% 173 Albany 27 22.2, 191 Saint John's 3 21.1
54% 140 Grambling 24 18.9, 129 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 18.2
49% 20 Purdue 41 33.7, 30 Northwestern 28 33.9
46% 125 Colgate 23 24.9, 135 Cornell 16 25.7
42% 21 Texas 28 23.6, 27 Colorado 14 25.2
40% 174 Utah State 17 17.3, 184 North Texas 12 19.2
40% 128 Villanova 34 28.5, 133 Northeastern 20 31.0
40% 113 Temple 48 20.1, 124 Rutgers 14 22.4
40% 84 Kansas 38 25.1, 90 Missouri 17 27.2
40% 45 Alabama 45 21.8, 32 Mississippi 7 24.2
40% 34 Wisconsin 17 18.5, 47 Michigan State 10 20.5
37% 175 Sam Houston State 52 21.3, 164 Stephen F. Austin 41 25.9
37% 116 Richmond 31 18.3, 111 New Hampshire 10 22.3
37% 98 Utah 21 12.2, 96 San Diego State 7 15.4
34% 100 California 46 15.6, 51 California - Los Angel 38 20.4
29% 95 Texas - El Paso 47 30.4, 66 San Jose State 30 37.6
26% 4 Oklahoma 41 27.9, 3 Kansas State 31 36.7
24% 177 Princeton 55 21.4, 108 Brown 28 32.2
20% 208 Weber State 12 18.8, 163 Northern Arizona 10 32.5
20% 26 Minnesota 29 15.8, 8 Ohio State 17 29.6
18% 172 Rhode Island 7 9.3, 79 James Madison 6 25.3
17% 134 North Carolina A&T 30 6.0, 57 Florida A&M 10 23.2
16% 207 Dartmouth 31 18.1, 112 Holy Cross 14 35.3
9% 196 Southern Illinois 35 16.1, 48 Drake 23 44.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.88 18 0.95 19 0.99 26 1.04 28 1.05 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 103 81 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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