rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 24 Auburn over 169 Louisiana Tech 43 Boise State over 190 North Texas 52 Central Florida over 228 Northeast Louisiana 105 Colgate over 221 Saint Mary's 72 Duquesne over 199 Iona 1 Florida State over 60 Virginia 28 Georgia Tech over 183 Duke 159 Illinois State over 234 Prairie View 12 Ohio State over 112 Iowa 4 Kansas State over 93 Texas Tech 91 Marshall over 209 Kent State 5 Nebraska over 176 Baylor 71 Florida A&M over 224 Norfolk State 67 Ohio over 210 Central Michigan 61 Robert Morris over 222 Central Connecticut 129 Wagner over 237 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 106 South Florida over 206 Liberty 2 Miami - Florida over 86 Temple 139 Eastern Kentucky over 236 Tennessee - Martin 141 Texas Southern over 233 Mississippi Valley State 44 Georgia Southern over 204 The Citadel 13 Texas Christian over 165 Tulsa 55 Portland State over 196 Weber State 80-90% chance of victory: 110 Akron over 170 Connecticut 133 Southern over 215 Alcorn State 63 Appalachian State over 120 Wofford 164 Ball State over 220 Buffalo 66 Furman over 156 East Tennessee State 100 North Carolina A&T over 201 Howard 15 Minnesota over 111 Indiana 153 Northern Iowa over 229 Indiana State 17 Georgia over 98 Kentucky 94 Maryland over 154 Wake Forest 69 Memphis State over 171 Houston 10 Michigan over 64 Michigan State 172 Monmouth over 219 Stony Brook 99 Montana over 180 Northern Arizona 101 Nevada - Las Vegas over 194 Wyoming 167 Stephen F. Austin over 227 Nicholls State 9 Clemson over 88 North Carolina 97 Richmond over 184 Maine 146 Hampton over 231 South Carolina State 6 Virginia Tech over 49 Syracuse 23 Texas over 95 Missouri 33 South Carolina over 107 Vanderbilt 20 Washington over 81 California 70-80% chance of victory: 73 Alabama - Birmingham over 128 Middle Tennessee State 178 Bowling Green over 189 Eastern Michigan 230 Siena over 235 Canisius 143 Columbia over 191 Dartmouth 208 Delaware State over 218 Morgan State 58 Hofstra over 92 Elon 77 James Madison over 132 William & Mary 127 Holy Cross over 192 Lafayette 42 Lehigh over 82 Bucknell 11 Mississippi State over 39 Louisiana State 85 San Jose State over 149 Nevada - Reno 144 Northeastern over 166 Rhode Island 123 Rice over 160 Hawaii 70 Troy State over 152 Sam Houston State 163 Murray State over 214 Southeast Missouri State 138 Southwest Missouri State over 177 Southern Illinois 175 Southwest Texas State over 195 Jacksonville State 18 Tennessee over 26 Alabama 84 Eastern Illinois over 142 Tennessee Tech 78 Idaho over 174 Utah State 193 Charleston Southern over 223 Virginia Military 76 Western Illinois over 121 Youngstown State 60-70% chance of victory: 31 Louisville over 30 East Carolina 80 Air Force over 103 New Mexico 122 New Mexico State over 157 Arkansas State 89 Brigham Young over 102 San Diego State 130 Brown over 145 Cornell 29 Oregon State over 54 California - Los Angeles 147 Marist over 179 Georgetown 182 Southern Utah over 200 Idaho State 22 Texas A&M over 57 Iowa State 211 California State - North over 226 Montana State 83 McNeese State over 119 Northwestern State 14 Oregon over 16 Arizona 27 Boston College over 68 Pittsburgh 135 Princeton over 140 Harvard 203 Samford over 207 Gardner - Webb 46 Southern California over 87 Stanford 104 Western Kentucky over 137 Tennessee State 118 Villanova over 125 New Hampshire 136 Tennessee - Chattanooga over 188 Western Carolina 25 Western Michigan over 37 Northern Illinois 19 Purdue over 34 Wisconsin 90 Yale over 108 Pennsylvania 50-60% chance of victory: 134 Tulane over 168 Army 202 Butler over 198 San Diego 74 Drake over 96 Dayton 131 Grambling over 124 Jackson State 56 Kansas over 40 Colorado 173 Navy over 158 Rutgers 38 Illinois over 48 Penn State 150 Sacred Heart over 148 Albany 205 Saint John's over 225 Saint Peter's 62 Texas - El Paso over 50 Fresno State 51 Colorado State over 79 Utah 45 Arizona State over 65 Washington State 36 Notre Dame over 47 West Virginia 155 Eastern Washington over 162 Sacramento State
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