prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 212 Southeast Missouri Sta 34 45.2, 236 Tennessee - Martin 14 15.4
92% 188 Marist 49 41.1, 234 Canisius 14 3.0
92% 115 Youngstown State 42 41.6, 228 Indiana State 7 5.7
92% 82 Western Illinois 73 43.2, 213 Morgan State 17 7.3
92% 76 Troy State 41 42.8, 226 Nicholls State 12 3.3
92% 67 Duquesne 34 43.5, 227 Saint Peter's 0 7.9
92% 47 Northern Illinois 73 60.1, 219 Buffalo 10 17.2
92% 20 Mississippi State 61 44.1, 132 Middle Tennessee State 35 15.9
92% 18 Texas 48 43.9, 178 Baylor 14 3.7
92% 17 Western Michigan 42 51.6, 208 Kent State 0 7.6
92% 16 Toledo 35 41.6, 183 Navy 14 5.9
92% 8 Southern Mississippi 6 46.9, 149 Houston 3 9.5
92% 3 Miami - Florida 42 66.4, 151 Louisiana Tech 31 11.8
91% 54 Fresno State 34 34.8, 171 Tulsa 12 6.5
91% 38 Boston College 42 43.9, 160 Rutgers 13 17.2
91% 12 Texas Christian 37 35.9, 107 Rice 0 6.8
90% 96 Brigham Young 19 42.8, 199 Wyoming 7 19.0
90% 64 Bucknell 27 28.2, 177 Fordham 13 5.1
90% 1 Florida State 58 36.7, 35 North Carolina State 14 14.5
89% 179 Northern Arizona 32 29.5, 229 Montana State 9 7.4
89% 150 Albany 42 39.8, 223 Central Connecticut 19 16.7
89% 103 Drake 62 51.1, 205 Butler 41 26.3
89% 68 Hofstra 33 43.1, 202 California Poly 30 20.4
89% 30 Louisville 35 49.4, 131 Tulane 32 25.6
89% 6 Virginia Tech 37 39.1, 51 Pittsburgh 34 15.8
88% 101 Elon 28 34.2, 211 Charleston Southern 12 10.1
88% 43 Lehigh 21 33.5, 162 Holy Cross 6 12.0
87% 48 Georgia Southern 42 34.1, 142 East Tennessee State 7 13.8
85% 31 Notre Dame 34 37.0, 93 Air Force 31 19.5
83% 128 Wofford 31 31.1, 196 The Citadel 10 14.9
83% 28 Delaware 33 25.7, 77 James Madison 14 10.5
82% 190 Morehead State 73 46.3, 232 Austin Peay 10 31.1
82% 89 Maryland 20 32.5, 189 Duke 9 17.6
82% 78 Florida A&M 53 40.2, 145 Hampton 24 24.7
82% 55 Robert Morris 38 30.7, 144 Wagner 31 16.0
81% 141 Sacred Heart 46 33.7, 194 Iona 7 18.5
81% 138 Southern Utah 43 38.7, 195 Saint Mary's 14 22.8
81% 34 Boise State 34 40.9, 117 New Mexico State 31 26.4
80% 233 Mississippi Valley Sta 33 38.7, 235 Prairie View 7 24.2
80% 75 San Jose State 59 39.9, 173 Hawaii 48 26.4
80% 49 Mississippi 43 23.7, 106 Nevada - Las Vegas 40 11.2
79% 126 Colgate 17 33.0, 185 Lafayette 14 19.3
79% 124 Harvard 49 34.2, 203 Dartmouth 7 21.2
79% 46 Colorado 37 29.1, 102 Oklahoma State 21 16.0
79% 39 Wisconsin 13 26.2, 110 Iowa 7 14.4
79% 29 Oregon State 38 38.6, 60 Washington State 9 26.2
78% 198 Howard 14 27.0, 224 Norfolk State 0 15.1
78% 133 Illinois State 27 27.0, 187 Southern Illinois 17 15.0
78% 108 Fairfield 38 34.6, 156 Georgetown 14 22.2
78% 95 Yale 41 34.3, 137 Columbia 0 22.6
77% 69 Iowa State 39 33.3, 104 Missouri 20 22.6
77% 23 Washington 31 29.7, 70 Stanford 28 18.7
77% 7 Florida 34 30.5, 22 Georgia 23 20.0
76% 170 Weber State 16 32.9, 216 Idaho State 13 22.1
76% 130 William & Mary 26 31.1, 172 Northeastern 15 21.0
76% 44 Colorado State 34 16.8, 97 San Diego State 22 8.7
75% 94 South Florida 21 27.7, 163 Connecticut 13 18.7
74% 206 Delaware State 57 41.0, 222 South Carolina State 32 32.2
73% 175 Ball State 38 22.4, 218 Central Michigan 34 14.6
73% 134 Eastern Kentucky 28 23.7, 174 Tennessee State 0 15.4
71% 84 McNeese State 31 30.1, 140 Sam Houston State 17 22.7
71% 61 Virginia 17 29.4, 85 North Carolina 6 21.8
70% 184 Western Carolina 41 36.2, 214 Virginia Military 31 29.0
70% 147 Utah State 44 31.0, 166 Arkansas State 31 23.5
70% 105 Pennsylvania 41 40.3, 125 Brown 38 34.0
70% 13 Oregon 56 21.1, 41 Arizona State 55 14.6
69% 123 Grambling 26 17.5, 180 Texas Southern 17 11.0
69% 114 Towson 12 19.1, 159 Monmouth 0 13.2
69% 32 Auburn 21 22.5, 50 Arkansas 19 16.2
67% 2 Oklahoma 31 36.0, 4 Nebraska 14 30.5
65% 209 Liberty 24 27.0, 217 Samford 0 21.7
65% 42 Penn State 27 33.9, 79 Indiana 24 28.8
64% 207 Saint John's 28 12.5, 210 La Salle 2 8.8
64% 109 Cincinnati 45 23.6, 119 Miami - Ohio 15 19.1
64% 81 Western Kentucky 34 25.0, 88 Eastern Illinois 12 20.2
63% 220 Jacksonville 17 26.8, 225 Stony Brook 13 22.4
63% 169 Stephen F. Austin 27 31.0, 193 Jacksonville State 21 27.0
62% 127 Northern Iowa 31 24.3, 129 Southwest Missouri Sta 13 21.0
62% 120 North Carolina A&T 30 14.0, 118 Bethune - Cookman 19 11.4
60% 19 Tennessee 17 20.0, 33 South Carolina 14 18.1
59% 161 Cornell 25 24.0, 155 Princeton 24 22.1
59% 92 Marshall 31 27.2, 122 Akron 28 25.5
58% 200 North Texas 13 16.5, 215 Southwestern Louisiana 0 15.3
58% 65 Michigan State 14 22.5, 53 Illinois 10 21.0
57% 167 Maine 37 19.0, 153 Rhode Island 7 17.8
57% 90 New Mexico 10 19.5, 80 Utah 3 18.3
56% 15 Purdue 31 26.3, 11 Ohio State 27 25.3
54% 135 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 48 27.1, 121 Jackson State 41 26.4
52% 98 Richmond 28 28.0, 116 Villanova 18 27.7
49% 139 Tennessee Tech 36 21.3, 158 Murray State 21 21.4
41% 182 Southern Methodist 21 18.9, 152 Nevada - Reno 7 20.4
38% 186 Alabama A&M 34 26.5, 165 Alabama State 27 29.7
38% 100 Montana 33 29.6, 99 Portland State 21 33.1
37% 201 Valparaiso 32 18.5, 197 San Diego 10 22.2
35% 14 Texas A&M 26 20.1, 5 Kansas State 10 25.5
31% 136 New Hampshire 24 23.7, 86 Massachusetts 16 31.0
31% 36 Northwestern 41 28.2, 25 Minnesota 35 35.0
30% 74 California 28 16.4, 56 Southern California 16 23.4
30% 45 Central Florida 40 16.5, 24 Alabama 38 23.7
28% 181 Southwest Texas State 21 16.8, 111 Northwestern State 10 25.1
27% 66 Texas Tech 45 13.6, 52 Kansas 39 21.0
26% 204 California State - Nor 31 23.2, 157 Eastern Washington 26 31.9
22% 26 Georgia Tech 31 29.8, 10 Clemson 28 40.5
20% 57 California - Los Angel 27 22.6, 21 Arizona 24 36.1
19% 146 Tennessee - Chattanoog 30 21.7, 59 Appalachian State 27 36.1
16% 83 Alabama - Birmingham 16 9.9, 27 East Carolina 13 25.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.48 21 1.09 33 1.04 23 1.07 17 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 106 89 1.10
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net