rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 66 Appalachian State over 206 Virginia Military 133 Arkansas - Pine Bluff over 235 Prairie View 12 Western Michigan over 182 Ball State 2 Oklahoma over 177 Baylor 222 Central Connecticut over 236 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 28 Delaware over 137 New Hampshire 110 Drake over 225 Jacksonville 93 Eastern Illinois over 213 Southeast Missouri State 104 Elon over 209 Liberty 56 Fresno State over 172 Hawaii 36 Lehigh over 151 Colgate 94 Montana over 212 Idaho State 118 Portland State over 227 Montana State 3 Nebraska over 73 Kansas 11 Texas A&M over 113 Oklahoma State 55 Duquesne over 231 Siena 146 Southwest Missouri State over 237 Tennessee - Martin 5 Florida over 112 Vanderbilt 80-90% chance of victory: 49 Colorado State over 102 Brigham Young 37 Boise State over 173 Arkansas State 155 Cornell over 208 Dartmouth 103 North Carolina A&T over 203 Delaware State 1 Florida State over 16 Clemson 162 Georgetown over 205 Iona 127 Grambling over 187 Alabama State 8 Kansas State over 60 Iowa State 79 McNeese State over 160 Southwest Texas State 17 Tennessee over 87 Memphis State 51 Texas - El Paso over 168 Nevada - Reno 152 Sam Houston State over 217 Nicholls State 14 Ohio State over 62 Michigan State 44 Penn State over 115 Iowa 90 Richmond over 185 Rhode Island 126 Rice over 167 Southern Methodist 92 Towson over 201 Saint Mary's 10 Texas Christian over 78 San Jose State 181 Southern Illinois over 226 Indiana State 9 Southern Mississippi over 43 Louisville 122 Tennessee Tech over 189 Tennessee State 70 Dayton over 193 Valparaiso 134 Wagner over 197 Saint John's 57 Western Illinois over 135 Illinois State 70-80% chance of victory: 145 Albany over 170 Monmouth 34 Arizona State over 67 Southern California 81 Air Force over 164 Army 38 Boston College over 88 Temple 99 Marshall over 188 Bowling Green 50 California - Los Angeles over 69 Stanford 117 Northern Iowa over 192 California Poly 114 Eastern Kentucky over 166 Murray State 200 Eastern Michigan over 211 Central Michigan 106 Harvard over 150 Columbia 84 Bucknell over 156 Holy Cross 52 Illinois over 96 Indiana 129 Jackson State over 183 Alabama A&M 128 Northwestern State over 199 Jacksonville State 89 James Madison over 147 Maine 19 Mississippi State over 76 Kentucky 41 Central Florida over 124 Louisiana Tech 105 Fairfield over 191 Marist 97 Massachusetts over 125 Villanova 64 Ohio over 142 Miami - Ohio 47 Colorado over 111 Missouri 77 New Mexico over 101 San Diego State 109 Idaho over 194 North Texas 6 Michigan over 24 Northwestern 42 Pittsburgh over 82 North Carolina 154 Sacramento State over 198 California State - North 54 Robert Morris over 119 Sacred Heart 195 Howard over 229 South Carolina State 74 Florida A&M over 148 Southern 83 Troy State over 157 Stephen F. Austin 18 Texas over 68 Texas Tech 138 Tennessee - Chattanooga over 204 The Citadel 85 Utah over 100 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 Oregon over 65 Washington State 60-70% chance of victory: 53 Arkansas over 58 Mississippi 86 Yale over 132 Brown 25 Oregon State over 63 California 75 Cincinnati over 72 Alabama - Birmingham 123 Middle Tennessee State over 174 Connecticut 163 Eastern Washington over 175 Northern Arizona 40 Georgia Southern over 80 Furman 130 Bethune - Cookman over 159 Hampton 46 North Carolina State over 91 Maryland 4 Miami - Florida over 7 Virginia Tech 218 Alcorn State over 232 Mississippi Valley State 121 New Mexico State over 140 Utah State 224 Norfolk State over 220 Morgan State 15 Toledo over 39 Northern Illinois 107 Pennsylvania over 149 Princeton 214 Samford over 216 Charleston Southern 116 Tulane over 131 Houston 169 Wake Forest over 186 Duke 23 Washington over 26 Arizona 48 Syracuse over 71 West Virginia 33 Wisconsin over 29 Minnesota 50-60% chance of victory: 210 Kent State over 223 Buffalo 153 East Tennessee State over 141 Wofford 184 Fordham over 179 Lafayette 31 Louisiana State over 30 Alabama 215 Southwestern Louisiana over 230 Northeast Louisiana 228 Saint Peter's over 221 La Salle 61 Western Kentucky over 98 South Florida 95 Hofstra over 108 Youngstown State
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