prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 143 Southwest Missouri Sta 52 49.8, 237 Tennessee - Martin 6 1.8
92% 132 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 32 58.0, 235 Prairie View 13 5.5
92% 109 Drake 42 46.1, 224 Jacksonville 0 13.5
92% 105 Elon 24 37.1, 208 Liberty 17 8.2
92% 95 Montana 38 46.1, 211 Idaho State 21 16.3
92% 66 Appalachian State 52 47.6, 207 Virginia Military 0 14.6
92% 57 Duquesne 40 57.5, 231 Siena 14 12.0
92% 12 Western Michigan 42 46.2, 184 Ball State 3 8.0
92% 5 Florida 43 44.0, 122 Vanderbilt 20 10.6
92% 3 Nebraska 56 45.4, 67 Kansas 17 13.2
92% 2 Oklahoma 56 58.7, 170 Baylor 7 6.1
91% 221 Central Connecticut 45 32.8, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 24 6.5
91% 120 Portland State 31 40.5, 226 Montana State 24 13.8
91% 94 Eastern Illinois 38 46.7, 212 Southeast Missouri Sta 9 17.3
91% 35 Lehigh 20 35.0, 149 Colgate 14 7.4
91% 11 Texas A&M 21 33.6, 110 Oklahoma State 16 9.2
90% 60 Fresno State 45 43.1, 168 Hawaii 27 18.6
89% 38 Boise State 42 47.2, 171 Arkansas State 14 24.3
89% 1 Florida State 54 39.7, 16 Clemson 7 16.5
88% 8 Kansas State 56 41.8, 62 Iowa State 10 19.7
87% 13 Ohio State 27 25.7, 58 Michigan State 13 7.0
86% 53 Texas - El Paso 45 38.8, 166 Nevada - Reno 22 20.4
85% 155 Cornell 49 36.7, 209 Dartmouth 31 18.6
85% 134 Wagner 35 25.6, 199 Saint John's 3 9.1
85% 78 McNeese State 18 25.9, 158 Southwest Texas State 3 7.9
84% 17 Tennessee 19 25.6, 85 Memphis State 17 9.6
82% 125 Rice 43 20.4, 167 Southern Methodist 14 7.4
82% 119 Tennessee Tech 56 28.1, 189 Tennessee State 23 13.4
81% 103 Idaho 16 25.4, 194 North Texas 14 11.2
80% 165 Georgetown 43 38.2, 205 Iona 14 24.4
80% 157 Sam Houston State 27 30.0, 217 Nicholls State 21 16.5
80% 126 Jackson State 34 34.3, 182 Alabama A&M 28 20.5
80% 124 Grambling 20 36.9, 186 Alabama State 2 22.3
80% 91 Richmond 13 20.0, 174 Rhode Island 10 8.0
80% 75 Air Force 41 35.8, 159 Army 27 22.7
80% 50 Colorado State 45 29.9, 104 Brigham Young 21 16.2
80% 37 Boston College 31 35.2, 88 Temple 3 21.1
79% 154 Sacramento State 64 35.3, 198 California State - Nor 61 21.8
79% 137 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 28.3, 203 The Citadel 13 16.7
79% 100 Marshall 20 24.5, 188 Bowling Green 13 12.5
78% 115 Northern Iowa 43 36.4, 192 California Poly 41 24.9
78% 106 Fairfield 21 31.2, 191 Marist 17 19.8
78% 93 James Madison 22 28.0, 144 Maine 7 16.0
78% 19 Mississippi State 35 41.9, 76 Kentucky 17 30.1
77% 71 Florida A&M 50 31.0, 148 Southern 49 20.3
77% 51 Illinois 42 43.7, 89 Indiana 35 34.4
77% 48 Colorado 28 29.5, 111 Missouri 18 19.4
77% 43 Central Florida 20 37.7, 118 Louisiana Tech 16 26.5
77% 18 Texas 29 31.5, 74 Texas Tech 17 19.4
76% 197 Eastern Michigan 31 29.0, 213 Central Michigan 15 19.2
76% 112 Harvard 34 34.6, 150 Columbia 0 24.1
76% 87 Troy State 6 32.3, 153 Stephen F. Austin 0 22.3
76% 47 California - Los Angel 37 34.9, 73 Stanford 35 24.6
75% 21 Oregon 27 36.3, 68 Washington State 24 26.6
73% 97 Massachusetts 38 37.3, 128 Villanova 17 29.1
73% 55 Robert Morris 31 25.9, 121 Sacred Heart 20 17.6
71% 146 Albany 37 23.3, 173 Monmouth 10 16.0
71% 4 Miami - Florida 41 36.8, 7 Virginia Tech 21 29.4
70% 84 Utah 38 19.1, 98 Nevada - Las Vegas 16 13.1
69% 117 Tulane 41 36.4, 138 Houston 23 29.9
68% 131 Middle Tennessee State 66 31.3, 179 Connecticut 10 24.7
67% 176 Wake Forest 28 21.6, 187 Duke 26 16.6
66% 15 Toledo 38 31.6, 39 Northern Illinois 24 26.2
65% 26 Oregon State 38 24.7, 59 California 32 19.9
64% 107 Pennsylvania 40 27.7, 151 Princeton 24 23.0
63% 214 Samford 21 23.7, 215 Charleston Southern 14 19.8
63% 160 Eastern Washington 27 24.8, 172 Northern Arizona 9 20.6
63% 129 Bethune - Cookman 34 35.7, 162 Hampton 31 31.6
63% 33 Wisconsin 41 22.7, 32 Minnesota 20 18.6
61% 228 Norfolk State 19 18.9, 222 Morgan State 14 16.6
61% 180 Fordham 31 24.2, 181 Lafayette 28 21.4
61% 46 Syracuse 31 23.2, 72 West Virginia 27 20.1
61% 23 Washington 35 22.9, 24 Arizona 32 19.8
59% 30 Louisiana State 30 25.9, 28 Alabama 28 24.1
56% 82 Cincinnati 33 18.2, 69 Alabama - Birmingham 21 17.2
54% 139 Wofford 35 25.4, 156 East Tennessee State 31 24.7
48% 108 Youngstown State 42 24.5, 96 Hofstra 35 24.8
42% 216 Southwestern Louisiana 21 17.7, 225 Northeast Louisiana 18 19.2
41% 220 La Salle 21 8.9, 230 Saint Peter's 7 10.2
40% 223 Buffalo 20 26.2, 210 Kent State 17 28.4
40% 99 South Florida 30 17.1, 64 Western Kentucky 24 19.4
37% 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 12 25.9, 218 Alcorn State 3 29.9
37% 130 Brown 28 32.4, 90 Yale 14 36.4
36% 79 Furman 45 19.3, 42 Georgia Southern 10 23.6
33% 81 Maryland 35 22.7, 40 North Carolina State 28 28.0
31% 61 Mississippi 38 23.3, 52 Arkansas 24 30.4
31% 25 Northwestern 54 23.7, 10 Michigan 51 30.6
27% 145 Utah State 44 24.8, 114 New Mexico State 37 33.2
25% 101 San Diego State 17 9.0, 77 New Mexico 16 16.4
24% 70 Southern California 44 19.6, 36 Arizona State 38 30.0
23% 164 Murray State 24 15.2, 123 Eastern Kentucky 22 25.3
23% 152 Holy Cross 10 14.7, 80 Bucknell 9 25.0
23% 141 Miami - Ohio 27 18.7, 63 Ohio 24 29.5
21% 229 South Carolina State 38 23.3, 193 Howard 20 36.1
21% 83 North Carolina 20 16.0, 41 Pittsburgh 17 29.2
20% 200 Jacksonville State 28 18.8, 127 Northwestern State 24 32.2
15% 135 Illinois State 25 13.6, 54 Western Illinois 18 32.0
15% 113 Iowa 26 9.5, 49 Penn State 23 26.3
13% 227 Indiana State 23 15.9, 185 Southern Illinois 22 36.4
13% 204 Delaware State 46 11.5, 102 North Carolina A&T 45 30.8
13% 201 Saint Mary's 45 14.9, 92 Towson 33 35.5
13% 86 San Jose State 27 18.1, 9 Texas Christian 24 37.4
13% 44 Louisville 49 11.7, 6 Southern Mississippi 28 31.5
11% 195 Valparaiso 16 10.4, 65 Dayton 15 33.2
9% 136 New Hampshire 45 13.2, 27 Delaware 44 38.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.76 22 1.06 34 0.96 24 0.78 18 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 105 76 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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