rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 107 Tennessee Tech over 210 Samford 142 Akron over 226 Buffalo 144 Davidson over 233 Austin Peay 8 Western Michigan over 218 Central Michigan 43 Northern Illinois over 195 Eastern Michigan 114 Fairfield over 235 Canisius 158 Georgetown over 232 Saint Peter's 123 Wagner over 230 Jacksonville 51 Lehigh over 177 Fordham 108 Louisiana Tech over 229 Northeast Louisiana 31 Louisville over 152 Army 4 Miami - Florida over 53 Pittsburgh 44 North Carolina State over 184 Duke 124 Northern Iowa over 234 Prairie View 121 Sacred Heart over 237 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 85 Dayton over 205 San Diego 15 Toledo over 190 Ball State 1 Florida State over 170 Wake Forest 64 Western Kentucky over 219 Indiana State 80-90% chance of victory: 22 Georgia Tech over 57 Virginia 16 Southern Mississippi over 73 Alabama - Birmingham 163 Alabama A&M over 224 Alcorn State 179 Alabama State over 228 Mississippi Valley State 32 Boise State over 130 Utah State 77 Ohio over 189 Bowling Green 111 Brown over 208 Dartmouth 60 Duquesne over 176 Lafayette 38 East Carolina over 138 Houston 5 Florida over 30 South Carolina 128 Bethune - Cookman over 206 Howard 19 Northwestern over 116 Iowa 7 Michigan over 55 Penn State 122 New Hampshire over 200 Gardner - Webb 54 Robert Morris over 129 Albany 151 Southwest Missouri State over 211 Southeast Missouri State 18 Tennessee over 66 Arkansas 47 Texas - El Paso over 113 Rice 2 Oklahoma over 10 Texas A&M 11 Texas Christian over 69 Fresno State 106 Tulane over 174 Navy 52 Appalachian State over 180 Western Carolina 65 Utah over 192 Wyoming 93 Yale over 155 Princeton 99 Youngstown State over 194 Southern Illinois 70-80% chance of victory: 9 Virginia Tech over 49 Central Florida 42 Colorado over 84 Iowa State 59 Georgia Southern over 119 Elon 207 Idaho State over 223 Montana State 13 Ohio State over 40 Illinois 24 Wisconsin over 97 Indiana 209 Iona over 231 Siena 17 Texas over 71 Kansas 89 Kentucky over 109 Vanderbilt 183 Marist over 214 La Salle 201 Liberty over 220 Charleston Southern 147 Maine over 175 Northeastern 98 Marshall over 132 Miami - Ohio 35 Delaware over 91 Massachusetts 14 Purdue over 61 Michigan State 12 Mississippi State over 27 Alabama 159 Murray State over 199 Tennessee State 198 Delaware State over 227 Norfolk State 137 Northwestern State over 157 Sam Houston State 26 Oregon over 56 California 80 West Virginia over 164 Rutgers 101 Drake over 182 Saint Mary's 141 Southern over 171 Texas Southern 117 Southern Utah over 146 Morehead State 75 Texas Tech over 110 Oklahoma State 23 Washington over 50 California - Los Angeles 100 Montana over 169 Weber State 45 Furman over 140 Wofford 60-70% chance of victory: 39 Colorado State over 76 Air Force 181 Arkansas State over 188 North Texas 118 Missouri over 168 Baylor 222 Central Connecticut over 225 Stony Brook 145 Colgate over 156 Holy Cross 135 North Carolina A&T over 160 Hampton 161 Hawaii over 167 Nevada - Reno 120 Idaho over 127 New Mexico State 3 Nebraska over 6 Kansas State 83 Middle Tennessee State over 90 South Florida 29 Louisiana State over 48 Mississippi 74 North Carolina over 72 Maryland 150 Sacramento State over 185 Northern Arizona 33 Notre Dame over 36 Boston College 143 Portland State over 153 Eastern Washington 217 South Carolina State over 221 Morgan State 58 Southern California over 63 Washington State 166 Southwest Texas State over 187 Stephen F. Austin 41 Arizona State over 62 Stanford 46 Syracuse over 103 Temple 139 Tennessee - Chattanooga over 149 East Tennessee State 86 Bucknell over 126 Towson 68 Troy State over 92 McNeese State 131 Villanova over 134 William & Mary 202 The Citadel over 216 Virginia Military 50-60% chance of victory: 191 Monmouth over 204 Saint John's 28 Arizona over 25 Oregon State 21 Georgia over 34 Auburn 178 California Poly over 197 California State - North 173 Columbia over 154 Cornell 165 Rhode Island over 196 Connecticut 82 Eastern Illinois over 112 Illinois State 78 Memphis State over 67 Cincinnati 105 Nevada - Las Vegas over 87 New Mexico 104 Pennsylvania over 102 Harvard 96 Richmond over 88 James Madison 162 Tulsa over 186 Southern Methodist
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