prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 115 South Florida 59 52.3, 233 Austin Peay 0 6.6
92% 107 Montana 28 45.7, 232 Montana State 3 6.4
92% 84 McNeese State 12 40.5, 215 Nicholls State 7 6.0
92% 73 Duquesne 56 63.4, 235 Canisius 13 5.6
92% 67 Fresno State 14 35.4, 186 Southern Methodist 7 7.1
92% 62 Middle Tennessee State 41 48.1, 221 Southwestern Louisiana 38 6.6
92% 60 Robert Morris 36 48.1, 222 Stony Brook 6 10.9
92% 55 Appalachian State 34 43.1, 208 Liberty 13 4.6
92% 43 Colorado State 37 46.7, 202 Wyoming 13 11.6
92% 23 Western Michigan 28 42.3, 168 Eastern Michigan 0 7.2
92% 6 Kansas State 28 46.5, 110 Missouri 24 16.9
91% 226 Saint Peter's 42 23.7, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 2.6
91% 130 Wofford 24 39.3, 230 Northeast Louisiana 6 13.4
91% 29 Notre Dame 45 39.8, 166 Rutgers 17 14.4
91% 2 Oklahoma 27 43.0, 36 Texas Tech 13 14.4
90% 149 Hampton 31 47.9, 228 Morgan State 14 21.7
90% 136 Miami - Ohio 17 43.5, 229 Buffalo 16 20.4
90% 105 Fairfield 62 32.9, 212 La Salle 7 9.1
90% 66 Northern Illinois 40 46.7, 200 Central Michigan 6 17.4
90% 24 Boise State 66 46.0, 118 Idaho 24 21.7
89% 68 Troy State 28 32.4, 192 Jacksonville State 0 11.5
89% 25 Louisville 32 45.0, 155 Houston 13 22.1
89% 14 Tennessee 59 40.3, 96 Kentucky 20 17.2
88% 132 North Carolina A&T 66 39.1, 217 South Carolina State 14 18.7
88% 76 Western Kentucky 22 33.8, 179 Southern Illinois 0 11.0
88% 44 Furman 45 35.7, 140 Tennessee - Chattanoog 44 14.4
88% 40 Delaware 59 47.2, 139 Villanova 42 26.4
87% 46 Lehigh 31 36.0, 167 Lafayette 17 16.5
87% 22 Purdue 41 48.1, 94 Indiana 13 29.6
86% 134 Jackson State 30 37.0, 220 Alcorn State 14 18.7
85% 4 Miami - Florida 26 34.0, 38 Syracuse 0 17.5
84% 10 Texas Christian 47 28.4, 49 Texas - El Paso 14 12.4
83% 146 East Tennessee State 55 27.1, 203 Charleston Southern 7 11.1
83% 135 Akron 34 33.3, 216 Kent State 6 18.3
83% 1 Florida State 30 38.3, 5 Florida 7 21.7
82% 187 Marist 28 31.8, 227 Siena 18 17.0
80% 182 Texas Southern 17 21.9, 224 Norfolk State 12 9.7
80% 123 Brown 45 41.3, 185 Columbia 27 28.0
80% 106 Illinois State 40 22.3, 150 Southwest Missouri Sta 7 10.4
80% 93 Massachusetts 29 24.6, 177 Rhode Island 21 12.3
80% 71 Alabama - Birmingham 27 28.1, 159 Army 7 15.6
79% 137 Oklahoma State 50 28.7, 194 Baylor 22 15.6
79% 129 Holy Cross 27 26.5, 188 Fordham 20 13.9
79% 42 Minnesota 27 29.4, 90 Iowa 24 16.2
79% 19 Georgia 32 30.9, 58 Mississippi 14 18.0
79% 13 Georgia Tech 35 32.0, 70 Maryland 22 19.4
78% 80 North Carolina 59 27.0, 162 Duke 21 15.5
77% 114 Youngstown State 35 30.0, 196 California Poly 13 19.2
77% 109 Southern Utah 27 29.5, 184 Northern Arizona 23 18.6
75% 201 Tennessee State 51 39.0, 211 Southeast Missouri Sta 33 30.2
75% 191 Monmouth 32 19.2, 213 Jacksonville 28 11.2
75% 89 Eastern Illinois 49 24.3, 133 Eastern Kentucky 6 15.0
74% 147 Portland State 49 41.4, 183 California State - Nor 22 33.1
74% 101 Tennessee Tech 37 29.8, 170 Western Carolina 35 21.0
74% 17 Clemson 16 26.3, 33 South Carolina 14 17.8
74% 16 Oregon State 23 32.0, 27 Oregon 13 23.1
71% 100 Hofstra 55 44.1, 119 Albany 28 37.7
71% 69 Air Force 45 26.3, 92 San Diego State 24 18.6
70% 124 Sacred Heart 22 23.3, 148 Wagner 20 16.5
70% 72 Iowa State 38 34.6, 87 Kansas 17 27.3
69% 51 Pittsburgh 7 26.9, 108 Temple 0 20.2
68% 104 Pennsylvania 45 36.9, 154 Cornell 15 31.1
68% 28 Washington 51 33.9, 65 Washington State 3 27.6
67% 178 Ball State 29 27.7, 195 Connecticut 0 21.9
67% 78 Western Illinois 44 36.0, 125 Northern Iowa 41 30.8
67% 30 Northwestern 61 39.0, 35 Illinois 23 33.7
65% 79 Ohio 38 28.9, 85 Marshall 28 23.6
65% 74 Florida A&M 31 29.8, 102 Bethune - Cookman 28 24.5
64% 153 Davidson 41 23.2, 165 Georgetown 17 18.3
64% 83 Richmond 21 22.1, 131 William & Mary 18 17.6
63% 197 Delaware State 64 29.8, 214 Howard 37 25.6
55% 206 Saint John's 30 21.2, 218 Iona 21 20.3
54% 161 Wake Forest 49 23.1, 176 Navy 26 22.3
51% 138 Maine 55 28.3, 122 New Hampshire 10 28.0
51% 9 Michigan 38 21.9, 15 Ohio State 26 21.7
46% 53 Penn State 42 15.6, 39 Michigan State 23 16.2
46% 34 Auburn 9 20.7, 37 Alabama 0 21.4
45% 77 Virginia 24 22.1, 57 North Carolina State 17 23.1
40% 116 Brigham Young 37 17.4, 82 New Mexico 13 19.6
39% 112 Tulane 37 21.4, 81 Memphis State 14 24.4
39% 50 Stanford 36 18.6, 52 California 30 21.3
38% 157 Hawaii 27 34.4, 111 Louisiana Tech 10 37.6
37% 193 Stephen F. Austin 17 24.5, 152 Northwestern State 3 28.7
37% 117 Towson 30 28.3, 113 Drake 23 32.1
37% 95 Yale 34 18.5, 91 Harvard 24 22.3
32% 163 Southwest Texas State 24 16.8, 144 Sam Houston State 17 22.8
29% 175 Alabama A&M 26 19.9, 151 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 0 27.3
29% 64 Southern California 38 29.4, 48 California - Los Angel 35 36.4
28% 63 Cincinnati 27 18.5, 21 Southern Mississippi 24 26.1
27% 75 West Virginia 42 23.3, 31 East Carolina 24 31.8
24% 198 North Texas 30 16.2, 127 New Mexico State 23 25.7
24% 189 Nevada - Reno 34 20.2, 120 Rice 28 30.0
21% 180 Northeastern 34 14.7, 99 James Madison 30 26.0
20% 199 Idaho State 27 28.8, 142 Utah State 24 43.0
17% 174 Tulsa 28 21.8, 61 San Jose State 17 37.6
15% 160 Colgate 24 6.9, 86 Bucknell 21 22.4
14% 207 Dartmouth 42 16.4, 141 Princeton 37 35.0
10% 88 Arkansas 17 18.3, 7 Mississippi State 10 44.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.07 19 0.90 30 1.01 24 0.97 18 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 98 75 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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