prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 83 Fairfield 38 43.3, 212 Jacksonville 16 13.5
92% 15 Toledo 51 40.3, 169 Bowling Green 17 2.9
92% 11 Texas Christian 62 35.4, 166 Southern Methodist 7 5.1
92% 4 Nebraska 34 40.5, 49 Colorado 32 13.0
92% 3 Oklahoma 12 53.4, 137 Oklahoma State 7 12.6
91% 54 Syracuse 49 34.1, 161 Rutgers 21 9.4
91% 2 Miami - Florida 52 42.3, 38 Boston College 6 16.3
90% 25 Wisconsin 34 38.7, 144 Hawaii 18 15.0
90% 8 Virginia Tech 42 38.1, 72 Virginia 21 14.7
89% 10 Tennessee 28 36.0, 96 Vanderbilt 26 14.2
87% 37 Delaware 49 42.6, 134 Portland State 14 22.7
86% 70 North Carolina State 32 38.3, 147 Wake Forest 14 19.7
78% 79 Richmond 10 19.7, 112 Youngstown State 3 10.1
77% 50 Georgia Southern 42 26.5, 99 McNeese State 17 15.8
76% 34 Pittsburgh 38 28.1, 60 West Virginia 28 17.7
73% 153 Tulsa 38 26.5, 176 Nevada - Reno 3 18.3
65% 31 Notre Dame 38 27.5, 61 Southern California 21 22.5
65% 9 Texas 43 23.0, 13 Texas A&M 17 18.2
62% 75 Western Kentucky 27 26.1, 74 Florida A&M 0 22.8
61% 42 Lehigh 37 25.7, 78 Western Illinois 7 23.0
61% 12 Georgia Tech 27 26.9, 24 Georgia 15 24.2
48% 124 Southern 33 23.5, 121 Grambling 29 24.0
40% 73 Fresno State 37 29.6, 77 San Jose State 6 31.7
38% 109 Nevada - Las Vegas 31 16.6, 108 San Diego State 24 19.6
37% 106 Montana 45 26.0, 71 Eastern Illinois 13 30.1
36% 64 Arkansas 14 21.7, 29 Louisiana State 3 26.1
36% 55 Appalachian State 33 17.6, 47 Troy State 30 21.9
35% 48 Arizona State 30 21.9, 35 Arizona 17 27.2
29% 36 East Carolina 14 20.5, 30 Southern Mississippi 9 28.3
24% 95 Brigham Young 34 14.0, 57 Utah 27 22.8
24% 84 Hofstra 31 28.3, 46 Furman 24 38.4
24% 69 Mississippi 45 22.6, 26 Mississippi State 30 33.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 10 0.79 8 0.66 4 1.14 8 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 32 21 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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