rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 80-90% chance of victory: 23 Georgia over 74 Virginia 70-80% chance of victory: 30 Georgia Southern over 72 Montana 11 Texas Christian over 35 Southern Mississippi 18 Boise State over 70 Texas - El Paso 10 Georgia Tech over 27 Louisiana State 6 Texas over 29 Oregon 25 Wisconsin over 50 California - Los Angeles 5 Nebraska over 14 Northwestern 2 Miami - Florida over 4 Florida 1 Florida State over 3 Oklahoma 60-70% chance of victory: 66 Arkansas over 103 Nevada - Las Vegas 67 Cincinnati over 80 Marshall 40 Mississippi over 64 West Virginia 42 Minnesota over 69 North Carolina State 37 Pittsburgh over 62 Iowa State 28 Louisville over 39 Colorado State 20 Texas A&M over 31 Mississippi State 8 Michigan over 22 Auburn 7 Virginia Tech over 17 Clemson 9 Kansas State over 13 Tennessee 16 Ohio State over 26 South Carolina 12 Washington over 21 Purdue 50-60% chance of victory: 41 Arizona State over 48 Boston College 34 Texas Tech over 36 East Carolina 54 Fresno State over 61 Air Force 19 Oregon State over 24 Notre Dame
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