prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 23 Georgia 37 25.1, 74 Virginia 14 12.4
79% 18 Boise State 38 45.5, 70 Texas - El Paso 23 33.8
76% 30 Georgia Southern 27 29.3, 72 Montana 25 19.4
75% 2 Miami - Florida 37 35.5, 4 Florida 20 26.2
73% 25 Wisconsin 21 32.9, 50 California - Los Angel 20 24.7
70% 8 Michigan 31 23.6, 22 Auburn 28 17.1
70% 5 Nebraska 66 42.6, 14 Northwestern 17 36.2
67% 7 Virginia Tech 41 38.1, 17 Clemson 20 32.8
64% 12 Washington 34 29.2, 21 Purdue 24 24.4
63% 9 Kansas State 35 33.4, 13 Tennessee 21 29.4
60% 19 Oregon State 41 25.8, 24 Notre Dame 9 23.5
49% 36 East Carolina 40 20.6, 34 Texas Tech 27 20.8
46% 61 Air Force 37 27.0, 54 Fresno State 34 27.7
43% 48 Boston College 31 27.3, 41 Arizona State 17 28.7
39% 80 Marshall 25 25.6, 67 Cincinnati 14 28.4
37% 64 West Virginia 49 30.0, 40 Mississippi 38 34.1
37% 31 Mississippi State 43 22.1, 20 Texas A&M 41 26.0
36% 103 Nevada - Las Vegas 31 20.3, 66 Arkansas 14 24.9
36% 69 North Carolina State 38 29.4, 42 Minnesota 30 33.8
36% 39 Colorado State 22 29.1, 28 Louisville 17 33.4
35% 62 Iowa State 37 21.0, 37 Pittsburgh 29 25.9
35% 26 South Carolina 24 15.2, 16 Ohio State 7 19.6
26% 27 Louisiana State 28 19.3, 10 Georgia Tech 14 27.7
23% 29 Oregon 35 21.6, 6 Texas 30 32.6
22% 35 Southern Mississippi 28 11.5, 11 Texas Christian 21 21.5
20% 3 Oklahoma 13 17.3, 1 Florida State 2 30.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.45 12 0.52 9 0.73 1 1.25 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 26 11 0.63
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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