prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 91% 3 Oklahoma 41 42.1, 70 North Carolina 27 8.1 85% 32 Louisville 45 44.7, 137 New Mexico State 24 21.7 80% 26 Wisconsin 26 25.3, 73 Virginia 17 11.5 80% 4 Nebraska 21 31.3, 10 Texas Christian 7 17.5 79% 14 Georgia Tech 13 30.7, 45 Syracuse 7 17.1 72% 81 Brigham Young 70 37.8, 116 Tulane 35 28.9 28% 64 Fresno State 24 17.1, 37 Colorado 22 24.7 total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 7 6 1.07 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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