rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 72 Alabama - Birmingham over 231 Montana State 37 Delaware over 172 Rhode Island 56 Appalachian State over 208 Liberty 26 Auburn over 178 Ball State 80-90% chance of victory: 76 Duquesne over 209 Virginia Military 132 Tennessee - Chattanooga over 220 Samford 115 Temple over 181 Navy 195 Gardner - Webb over 237 Tennessee - Martin 142 Tulsa over 219 Indiana State 30 Western Michigan over 112 Illinois State 128 Grambling over 221 Alcorn State 15 Brigham Young over 200 Nevada - Reno 80 Montana over 198 California Poly 70-80% chance of victory: 161 Rutgers over 226 Buffalo 153 Eastern Kentucky over 203 Central Michigan 60 Northern Illinois over 106 South Florida 40 Arizona over 104 San Diego State 16 Toledo over 44 Minnesota 82 Washington State over 119 Idaho 7 Oklahoma over 62 Air Force 19 Clemson over 59 Central Florida 135 Davidson over 184 Valparaiso 60-70% chance of victory: 179 Northern Arizona over 196 California State - North 91 Vanderbilt over 102 Middle Tennessee State 131 Villanova over 145 Colgate 61 Arkansas over 83 Nevada - Las Vegas 42 Alabama over 48 California - Los Angeles 41 Boston College over 57 West Virginia 50-60% chance of victory: 88 Western Illinois over 71 Western Kentucky 117 Towson over 138 Albany 65 California over 52 Illinois
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