prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 95 Dayton 70 58.3, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 1.9
92% 71 Alabama - Birmingham 41 43.7, 231 Montana State 13 2.4
92% 8 Georgia Tech 35 50.9, 206 The Citadel 7 1.9
91% 105 Bethune - Cookman 35 44.5, 229 Morgan State 24 9.6
91% 56 Appalachian State 46 43.8, 208 Liberty 26 5.7
91% 26 Auburn 30 41.9, 178 Ball State 0 5.8
91% 11 Michigan 31 45.6, 140 Miami - Ohio 13 10.6
91% 6 Virginia Tech 52 64.7, 194 Connecticut 10 9.7
91% 1 Florida State 55 61.5, 177 Duke 13 5.5
90% 97 Iowa 51 37.0, 218 Kent State 0 4.6
90% 20 Georgia 45 47.9, 170 Arkansas State 17 12.7
90% 9 Texas 41 49.3, 136 New Mexico State 7 17.0
89% 195 Gardner - Webb 45 46.9, 237 Tennessee - Martin 20 14.1
89% 76 Duquesne 41 47.3, 209 Virginia Military 18 16.3
89% 17 Texas A&M 38 34.6, 109 McNeese State 24 8.8
89% 3 Nebraska 42 38.9, 66 Troy State 14 6.9
88% 142 Tulsa 51 33.1, 219 Indiana State 0 8.8
88% 18 Southern Mississippi 17 33.9, 110 Oklahoma State 9 9.1
87% 168 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 19 39.1, 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 9 15.7
87% 15 Brigham Young 52 62.6, 200 Nevada - Reno 7 19.0
87% 5 Florida 49 43.5, 74 Marshall 14 17.7
87% 2 Miami - Florida 33 39.1, 47 Penn State 7 14.0
86% 50 Pittsburgh 31 32.6, 137 East Tennessee State 0 12.9
86% 30 Western Michigan 48 30.0, 112 Illinois State 7 9.6
86% 29 Louisiana State 48 58.6, 197 Tulane 17 21.5
86% 24 Mississippi State 30 31.3, 93 Memphis State 10 10.7
86% 10 Texas Christian 19 32.1, 192 North Texas 5 3.4
85% 128 Grambling 37 29.6, 221 Alcorn State 22 8.2
84% 130 Jackson State 27 39.7, 217 Howard 17 19.0
84% 85 Kansas 24 30.8, 160 Southwest Missouri Sta 10 13.4
84% 73 Florida A&M 35 52.1, 193 Delaware State 17 26.7
84% 68 Utah 23 32.7, 156 Utah State 19 14.7
84% 43 Lehigh 41 37.9, 169 Georgetown 14 17.7
83% 80 Montana 31 37.5, 198 California Poly 17 18.6
83% 77 Hofstra 45 42.5, 164 Northeastern 21 23.0
83% 49 Mississippi 49 45.4, 149 Murray State 14 24.8
83% 12 Tennessee 33 28.7, 72 Syracuse 9 8.7
82% 132 Tennessee - Chattanoog 28 35.4, 220 Samford 14 17.6
81% 175 Eastern Michigan 16 38.1, 216 Southeast Missouri Sta 12 21.6
81% 154 Sam Houston State 20 33.2, 223 Northeast Louisiana 9 17.3
80% 115 Temple 45 29.9, 181 Navy 26 15.4
80% 19 Clemson 21 33.4, 59 Central Florida 13 18.9
79% 161 Rutgers 31 35.5, 226 Buffalo 15 20.7
79% 60 Northern Illinois 20 34.2, 106 South Florida 17 20.5
78% 135 Davidson 24 24.0, 184 Valparaiso 7 13.0
78% 129 Louisiana Tech 36 29.5, 173 Southern Methodist 6 17.2
78% 121 Southern Utah 28 28.4, 163 Weber State 21 16.8
78% 16 Toledo 38 30.9, 44 Minnesota 7 18.8
78% 7 Oklahoma 44 42.4, 62 Air Force 3 27.3
77% 25 Purdue 19 33.2, 81 Cincinnati 14 22.0
76% 40 Arizona 23 23.1, 104 San Diego State 10 12.5
75% 64 Virginia 17 22.0, 92 Richmond 16 13.4
75% 61 Arkansas 14 26.9, 83 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 18.0
74% 34 Louisville 36 37.3, 103 Kentucky 10 27.8
74% 21 Oregon 31 26.9, 36 Wisconsin 28 18.0
73% 67 Southern California 21 36.0, 99 San Jose State 10 26.8
70% 152 Sacramento State 13 37.8, 180 Saint Mary's 6 29.8
69% 179 Northern Arizona 30 33.3, 196 California State - Nor 17 26.1
68% 131 Villanova 38 34.6, 145 Colgate 14 27.8
68% 41 Boston College 34 33.6, 57 West Virginia 10 26.9
67% 210 Southwestern Louisiana 20 20.8, 214 Nicholls State 0 15.5
67% 101 James Madison 42 19.8, 113 Elon 21 14.6
64% 227 Saint Peter's 22 19.7, 230 Central Connecticut 20 15.7
64% 125 Portland State 16 31.9, 167 Stephen F. Austin 13 26.7
62% 143 New Hampshire 45 34.8, 147 Hampton 29 31.2
62% 82 Washington State 36 33.9, 119 Idaho 7 29.9
61% 123 Rice 21 26.4, 155 Houston 14 23.7
55% 88 Western Illinois 17 20.1, 70 Western Kentucky 13 19.1
51% 28 South Carolina 32 23.4, 23 Boise State 13 23.2
44% 138 Albany 14 30.1, 117 Towson 10 31.3
44% 52 Illinois 44 22.8, 65 California 17 24.0
40% 100 New Mexico 26 22.0, 75 Texas - El Paso 6 24.1
40% 32 Fresno State 44 23.5, 14 Oregon State 24 26.2
38% 190 Tennessee State 27 22.8, 158 Alabama A&M 6 26.3
38% 118 Akron 31 26.2, 79 Ohio 29 29.8
38% 48 California - Los Angel 20 25.6, 42 Alabama 17 29.4
37% 78 Maryland 23 23.5, 39 North Carolina 7 28.7
36% 102 Middle Tennessee State 37 22.3, 91 Vanderbilt 28 26.7
31% 69 Colorado 41 22.5, 38 Colorado State 14 29.7
30% 203 Central Michigan 42 12.2, 153 Eastern Kentucky 28 19.7
25% 157 Northwestern State 30 23.2, 124 Southern 21 32.7
22% 134 William & Mary 31 19.7, 84 Massachusetts 10 31.8
18% 166 Bowling Green 20 15.7, 89 Missouri 13 32.1
14% 191 Wyoming 20 13.7, 54 Furman 14 38.0
11% 148 Wake Forest 21 11.5, 27 East Carolina 19 39.3
10% 172 Rhode Island 10 8.1, 37 Delaware 7 40.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.72 17 0.91 19 1.11 33 1.07 12 1.01 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 86 69 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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