prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 93 Eastern Illinois 44 51.3, 232 Indiana State 14 7.1
92% 11 Louisville 31 53.6, 166 Western Carolina 7 15.2
92% 5 Florida 55 68.8, 223 Northeast Louisiana 6 2.2
92% 3 Florida State 29 46.9, 92 Alabama - Birmingham 7 5.4
92% 2 Oklahoma 37 53.7, 196 North Texas 10 0.2
92% 1 Miami - Florida 61 58.1, 157 Rutgers 0 3.3
91% 123 Bowling Green 35 40.2, 228 Buffalo 0 5.2
91% 88 Duquesne 28 42.1, 224 Saint Peter's 10 6.6
90% 83 Florida A&M 21 42.1, 213 Morgan State 12 12.3
90% 54 Colorado State 35 46.5, 207 Nevada - Reno 18 14.2
90% 15 Texas Christian 38 34.3, 195 Southern Methodist 10 4.7
89% 218 La Salle 42 34.6, 237 Saint Francis - Pennsy 37 6.5
89% 40 Arizona 36 37.9, 161 Idaho 29 8.9
89% 24 Georgia Tech 70 47.1, 187 Navy 7 15.7
89% 21 Louisiana State 31 42.0, 133 Utah State 14 15.1
88% 68 Maryland 50 34.5, 190 Eastern Michigan 3 7.4
88% 48 Michigan State 35 40.5, 168 Central Michigan 21 13.2
87% 72 William & Mary 34 38.9, 208 Virginia Military 0 14.5
87% 29 Clemson 38 39.2, 122 Wofford 14 16.0
87% 7 Toledo 33 37.4, 107 Temple 7 12.0
87% 4 Nebraska 27 37.9, 34 Notre Dame 10 15.7
86% 145 Sacred Heart 41 37.2, 229 Central Connecticut 21 14.6
86% 22 Ohio State 28 38.9, 101 Akron 14 17.7
86% 10 Texas 44 37.2, 65 North Carolina 14 16.1
85% 126 Albany 31 30.0, 205 Saint John's 6 9.3
85% 20 Oregon 24 33.3, 82 Utah 10 13.7
85% 6 Kansas State 10 38.3, 70 Southern California 6 15.6
84% 13 Colorado 51 36.8, 84 San Jose State 15 16.2
83% 214 Iona 27 37.3, 235 Canisius 24 18.0
83% 200 Jacksonville State 34 23.7, 231 Nicholls State 15 5.7
83% 74 Minnesota 44 32.5, 189 Southwestern Louisiana 14 7.1
83% 41 Oregon State 27 38.8, 143 New Mexico State 22 22.5
83% 30 Texas A&M 28 36.4, 140 Wyoming 20 15.2
82% 124 Kentucky 28 30.0, 191 Ball State 20 14.1
81% 97 Villanova 31 42.1, 170 Northeastern 14 24.9
81% 36 Georgia Southern 38 31.9, 104 Delaware 7 15.6
80% 135 Grambling 30 25.2, 197 Alabama A&M 7 11.0
80% 78 East Carolina 51 47.5, 188 Tulane 24 32.7
79% 125 Maine 34 26.9, 175 Colgate 10 13.6
79% 118 Texas - El Paso 52 30.2, 172 Texas Southern 6 15.9
79% 71 Cincinnati 24 29.9, 163 Army 21 16.2
79% 50 Iowa State 45 43.1, 128 Northern Iowa 0 27.1
79% 19 Illinois 17 40.2, 63 Northern Illinois 12 24.9
78% 131 Holy Cross 33 29.3, 178 Georgetown 7 17.0
78% 87 Marshall 49 28.8, 144 Massachusetts 20 16.1
78% 61 Air Force 42 31.4, 120 Tennessee Tech 0 18.9
78% 59 Iowa 44 26.2, 116 Miami - Ohio 19 13.6
78% 32 Brigham Young 44 35.8, 117 California 16 20.6
77% 113 Rice 15 31.5, 149 Duke 13 19.4
77% 52 Arizona State 38 25.8, 111 San Diego State 7 15.0
76% 152 Southern 35 28.1, 198 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 14 17.1
76% 96 Memphis State 43 22.5, 138 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 12.4
76% 9 Tennessee 13 26.6, 56 Arkansas 3 15.5
75% 171 East Tennessee State 30 28.3, 203 Gardner - Webb 17 17.5
75% 134 Towson 16 23.5, 169 Lafayette 13 14.0
75% 110 Furman 46 27.3, 137 Elon 7 17.9
73% 73 Oklahoma State 30 29.0, 106 Louisiana Tech 23 19.6
73% 57 North Carolina State 35 40.9, 99 Indiana 14 31.1
72% 35 California - Los Angel 41 32.6, 94 Kansas 17 23.3
70% 47 Texas Tech 42 19.6, 55 New Mexico 30 12.9
67% 80 West Virginia 20 31.1, 105 Ohio 3 25.5
67% 37 Northwestern 37 33.1, 77 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 26.1
67% 17 Washington 23 26.2, 23 Michigan 18 20.0
67% 8 Virginia Tech 31 27.7, 14 Western Michigan 0 21.3
66% 58 Alabama 12 20.6, 115 Vanderbilt 9 15.3
65% 18 Auburn 27 20.4, 33 Mississippi 21 15.4
64% 167 Hampton 27 30.1, 206 Howard 20 25.0
64% 139 Missouri 40 20.1, 148 Southwest Texas State 6 15.6
64% 136 Eastern Washington 35 25.4, 182 Connecticut 17 20.6
64% 12 Fresno State 32 30.4, 39 Wisconsin 20 25.0
63% 194 Eastern Kentucky 30 25.6, 199 Liberty 7 20.9
63% 162 Northern Arizona 10 20.0, 174 Stephen F. Austin 3 15.9
60% 76 Wake Forest 20 28.8, 69 Appalachian State 10 26.4
59% 16 South Carolina 14 17.4, 31 Georgia 9 15.8
42% 81 Middle Tennessee State 54 28.4, 53 Troy State 17 30.2
41% 193 California Poly 55 19.7, 153 Sacramento State 21 21.8
41% 100 Rhode Island 35 19.1, 62 Hofstra 26 20.9
40% 67 Syracuse 21 12.8, 46 Central Florida 10 14.5
39% 177 Murray State 32 29.5, 146 Illinois State 17 32.6
38% 192 Baylor 24 28.1, 156 Arkansas State 3 31.9
38% 43 Washington State 41 25.9, 44 Boise State 20 30.1
37% 186 Monmouth 23 16.4, 141 Wagner 15 20.5
36% 212 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 20.2, 185 Southern Illinois 5 25.1
35% 45 Stanford 38 20.3, 27 Boston College 22 25.5
33% 209 Butler 29 41.4, 150 Morehead State 27 51.0
33% 121 New Hampshire 26 27.1, 64 James Madison 19 33.3
33% 66 Dayton 37 19.4, 51 Robert Morris 9 26.1
28% 147 Hawaii 30 23.4, 86 Montana 12 31.5
21% 219 Alcorn State 20 24.0, 179 Alabama State 17 38.6
17% 216 Jacksonville 45 14.9, 132 Davidson 3 32.6
15% 220 Montana State 32 11.9, 158 Weber State 17 31.5
15% 95 South Florida 35 4.3, 26 Pittsburgh 26 23.7
14% 184 Fordham 46 15.5, 85 Fairfield 14 36.1
10% 230 Kent State 38 7.0, 98 Bucknell 17 37.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.56 22 0.91 24 1.19 34 0.99 8 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 94 74 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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