rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 85 Akron over 219 Eastern Michigan 164 Army over 232 Buffalo 78 Cincinnati over 225 Northeast Louisiana 26 Clemson over 154 Duke 32 Dayton over 233 Austin Peay 15 Fresno State over 136 Utah State 27 Georgia over 152 Houston 80 Western Illinois over 230 Indiana State 2 Nebraska over 125 Rice 34 Northwestern over 213 Navy 29 Ohio State over 137 San Diego State 4 Oklahoma over 124 Tulsa 38 Oregon State over 207 Montana State 145 Sacred Heart over 235 Canisius 133 Southern over 234 Prairie View 12 Toledo over 107 Youngstown State 80-90% chance of victory: 89 Arkansas over 177 North Texas 99 Albany over 228 Central Connecticut 56 Central Florida over 198 Southwestern Louisiana 100 Fordham over 175 Columbia 96 Duquesne over 220 Iona 8 Kansas State over 106 Louisiana Tech 49 Furman over 214 Liberty 178 Marist over 221 La Salle 1 Miami - Florida over 14 Washington 71 Minnesota over 170 Baylor 39 Mississippi over 101 Vanderbilt 81 North Carolina over 196 Southern Methodist 104 North Carolina A&T over 181 Delaware State 90 Oklahoma State over 156 Northern Arizona 112 Rhode Island over 180 Northeastern 217 Saint John's over 236 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 127 Tennessee Tech over 216 Samford 16 South Carolina over 93 Bowling Green 117 Temple over 210 Connecticut 146 East Tennessee State over 231 Virginia Military 17 Georgia Southern over 111 Wofford 70-80% chance of victory: 51 North Carolina State over 73 Ohio 42 Air Force over 70 Utah 187 Arkansas - Pine Bluff over 206 Alcorn State 204 Arkansas State over 229 Nicholls State 161 Ball State over 190 Southern Illinois 82 Boise State over 149 Central Michigan 28 California - Los Angeles over 43 Arizona State 186 Colgate over 211 Dartmouth 108 Drake over 208 Davidson 3 Florida State over 10 Georgia Tech 138 Eastern Washington over 202 Idaho State 36 Iowa State over 58 Iowa 103 McNeese State over 188 Jacksonville State 110 Kansas over 134 Wyoming 41 Maryland over 62 West Virginia 7 Brigham Young over 24 Mississippi State 77 Robert Morris over 160 Monmouth 76 New Mexico over 122 New Mexico State 144 Northwestern State over 184 Gardner - Webb 40 Lehigh over 94 Pennsylvania 121 Portland State over 192 Sacramento State 126 Brown over 212 San Diego 48 Stanford over 135 San Jose State 67 South Florida over 118 Southern Utah 18 Texas Christian over 53 Marshall 165 Western Carolina over 209 The Citadel 55 William & Mary over 95 Villanova 54 Wisconsin over 74 Western Kentucky 30 Southern Mississippi over 61 Alabama 60-70% chance of victory: 153 Southwest Texas State over 197 California State - North 130 Bucknell over 166 Cornell 147 Elon over 167 Eastern Kentucky 5 Florida over 9 Tennessee 158 Wagner over 201 Georgetown 97 Hofstra over 115 New Hampshire 79 Eastern Illinois over 139 Illinois State 109 Indiana over 129 Kentucky 35 Louisiana State over 33 Auburn 91 Richmond over 142 Massachusetts 22 Michigan over 23 Western Michigan 69 Michigan State over 84 Missouri 203 Alabama A&M over 226 Mississippi Valley State 114 Montana over 131 Idaho 141 Hawaii over 179 Nevada - Reno 68 Pittsburgh over 64 Alabama - Birmingham 157 Princeton over 168 Lafayette 25 Purdue over 31 Notre Dame 120 California over 182 Rutgers 150 Southwest Missouri State over 195 Southeast Missouri State 224 Stony Brook over 227 Siena 45 Syracuse over 46 East Carolina 183 Texas Southern over 194 Alabama State 87 Yale over 132 Towson 13 Colorado over 21 Washington State 98 Grambling over 123 Florida A&M 143 Jackson State over 173 Tennessee State 50-60% chance of victory: 63 Texas - El Paso over 57 Texas Tech 72 Virginia over 59 Penn State 86 Nevada - Las Vegas over 66 Colorado State 113 Holy Cross over 102 Harvard 19 Louisville over 37 Illinois 174 Morehead State over 189 Jacksonville 169 Miami - Ohio over 191 Kent State 162 Saint Mary's over 148 California Poly 223 South Carolina State over 222 Norfolk State 151 Northern Iowa over 185 Stephen F. Austin 88 Appalachian State over 116 Troy State 83 Wake Forest over 75 Northern Illinois
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