rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 9 Brigham Young over 140 Utah State 47 Arizona State over 199 Southwestern Louisiana 41 Mississippi over 205 Arkansas State 136 Albany over 236 Canisius 54 Lehigh over 189 Cornell 21 Dayton over 180 San Diego 8 Georgia Tech over 194 Duke 20 Georgia Southern over 139 Western Carolina 1 Miami - Florida over 120 Troy State 57 North Carolina A&T over 218 Morgan State 44 Air Force over 201 Navy 3 Nebraska over 30 Iowa State 27 Syracuse over 198 Rutgers 75 Sacred Heart over 222 Saint John's 15 South Carolina over 131 Kentucky 172 Southeast Missouri State over 237 Tennessee - Martin 37 Texas A&M over 159 Baylor 4 Virginia Tech over 83 West Virginia 108 Wofford over 223 Virginia Military 95 Eastern Washington over 220 Montana State 76 Yale over 204 Dartmouth 80-90% chance of victory: 89 Arkansas over 203 Weber State 48 Boston College over 158 Temple 103 Bowling Green over 173 Kent State 111 Duquesne over 197 Georgetown 61 Harvard over 156 Northeastern 99 Youngstown State over 225 Indiana State 109 Jackson State over 190 Alabama State 6 Kansas State over 18 Colorado 2 Florida over 22 Louisiana State 87 McNeese State over 166 Stephen F. Austin 122 Miami - Ohio over 215 Buffalo 64 Middle Tennessee State over 178 Idaho 149 Morehead State over 211 Davidson 106 Northern Arizona over 183 Idaho State 17 Toledo over 119 Ohio 12 Michigan over 77 Penn State 130 Tennessee State over 191 Howard 13 Washington State over 66 Oregon State 82 Western Kentucky over 164 Elon 39 Western Michigan over 125 Akron 32 Wisconsin over 118 Indiana 107 Bethune - Cookman over 216 Delaware State 142 Florida A&M over 230 South Carolina State 70-80% chance of victory: 28 Oregon over 65 Arizona 98 Bucknell over 141 Towson 188 Butler over 224 Valparaiso 36 Alabama - Birmingham over 79 Central Florida 96 Cincinnati over 129 Tulane 151 Fairfield over 192 Marist 45 Furman over 73 Appalachian State 90 Rhode Island over 160 Hampton 38 Illinois over 68 Minnesota 182 Jacksonville over 209 Charleston Southern 93 Louisiana Tech over 150 San Jose State 78 Nevada - Las Vegas over 171 Nevada - Reno 19 North Carolina over 56 East Carolina 187 North Texas over 226 Northeast Louisiana 55 Notre Dame over 72 Pittsburgh 124 Princeton over 161 Colgate 31 Purdue over 59 Iowa 23 Boise State over 101 Rice 110 Montana over 196 Sacramento State 227 Central Connecticut over 234 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 202 Saint Peter's over 221 Iona 137 Southern over 167 Alabama A&M 147 Wagner over 214 Stony Brook 10 Tennessee over 26 Georgia 71 Texas Tech over 88 Kansas 126 Tulsa over 153 New Mexico State 51 Utah over 80 South Florida 85 Villanova over 127 James Madison 16 Washington over 58 Southern California 134 Western Illinois over 157 Southern Utah 40 Alabama over 70 Texas - El Paso 60-70% chance of victory: 168 East Tennessee State over 165 The Citadel 50 Louisville over 62 Colorado State 186 Texas Southern over 207 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 146 Houston over 179 Army 49 Auburn over 69 Mississippi State 213 Connecticut over 212 Eastern Michigan 92 Maine over 105 Richmond 42 Maryland over 43 Virginia 35 Southern Mississippi over 63 Memphis State 29 Ohio State over 34 Northwestern 84 Oklahoma State over 97 Missouri 91 Pennsylvania over 100 Holy Cross 114 Sam Houston State over 121 Northwestern State 169 Jacksonville State over 208 Samford 81 Eastern Illinois over 112 San Diego State 228 Siena over 229 La Salle 177 Southern Illinois over 174 Illinois State 74 Wake Forest over 102 North Carolina State 60 Hofstra over 94 William & Mary 115 New Mexico over 152 Wyoming 50-60% chance of victory: 123 Brown over 104 Fordham 193 Columbia over 210 Lafayette 116 Delaware over 135 New Hampshire 67 Northern Illinois over 53 Marshall 233 Mississippi Valley State over 235 Prairie View 163 Hawaii over 176 Southern Methodist 133 Northern Iowa over 154 Southwest Missouri State 155 Southwest Texas State over 143 Portland State 132 Tennessee Tech over 113 Murray State 5 Oklahoma over 7 Texas
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