prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 170 Southeast Missouri Sta 45 52.7, 237 Tennessee - Martin 30 3.4
92% 78 Sacred Heart 30 36.0, 224 Saint John's 14 3.1
92% 46 Arizona State 63 45.0, 199 Southwestern Louisiana 27 8.8
92% 39 Air Force 24 51.3, 200 Navy 18 19.7
92% 22 Syracuse 24 42.8, 198 Rutgers 17 7.2
92% 21 Dayton 35 47.0, 179 San Diego 14 6.9
92% 20 Georgia Southern 50 42.2, 135 Western Carolina 14 11.9
92% 14 South Carolina 42 42.2, 130 Kentucky 6 11.3
92% 11 Brigham Young 54 59.2, 139 Utah State 34 22.0
92% 8 Georgia Tech 37 57.1, 190 Duke 10 8.5
92% 3 Virginia Tech 35 49.8, 84 West Virginia 0 13.6
92% 1 Miami - Florida 38 61.0, 118 Troy State 7 5.9
91% 136 Albany 28 47.8, 236 Canisius 6 9.7
91% 109 Wofford 59 42.7, 223 Virginia Military 14 14.5
91% 98 Youngstown State 35 37.0, 225 Indiana State 21 9.9
91% 52 Lehigh 38 43.5, 189 Cornell 35 18.1
91% 44 Mississippi 35 46.8, 202 Arkansas State 17 17.8
91% 29 Texas A&M 16 36.7, 162 Baylor 10 4.6
90% 47 Boston College 33 40.2, 159 Temple 10 15.6
90% 4 Nebraska 48 36.9, 32 Iowa State 14 9.2
89% 61 Middle Tennessee State 70 44.4, 177 Idaho 58 19.0
89% 16 Toledo 48 35.6, 119 Ohio 41 13.6
88% 89 Arkansas 42 39.0, 204 Weber State 19 11.2
88% 2 Florida 44 37.7, 23 Louisiana State 15 16.0
87% 123 Miami - Ohio 31 36.7, 214 Buffalo 14 14.2
87% 108 Bethune - Cookman 49 39.4, 217 Delaware State 24 17.1
87% 77 Western Kentucky 24 24.8, 165 Elon 7 5.9
87% 62 Harvard 35 32.9, 158 Northeastern 20 13.7
87% 41 Western Michigan 31 31.5, 125 Akron 14 10.7
87% 13 Washington State 34 39.1, 66 Oregon State 27 17.8
87% 12 Michigan 20 35.0, 80 Penn State 0 14.9
85% 106 Northern Arizona 51 37.6, 188 Idaho State 26 18.7
84% 146 Florida A&M 33 44.9, 230 South Carolina State 27 20.6
84% 101 Bowling Green 24 31.3, 173 Kent State 7 14.5
83% 153 Morehead State 28 33.8, 212 Davidson 17 16.7
81% 129 Tennessee State 45 35.6, 192 Howard 0 17.7
80% 111 Montana 42 35.0, 195 Sacramento State 7 21.3
80% 17 Washington 27 28.6, 57 Southern California 24 15.1
79% 149 Fairfield 27 28.2, 196 Marist 6 15.3
79% 91 Louisiana Tech 41 40.4, 150 San Jose State 20 26.6
79% 75 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 35.2, 169 Nevada - Reno 12 20.6
78% 97 Bucknell 51 21.7, 144 Towson 10 11.3
78% 18 North Carolina 24 30.0, 53 East Carolina 21 17.7
77% 227 Central Connecticut 19 37.8, 233 Saint Francis - Pennsy 6 26.4
77% 187 Butler 38 33.4, 220 Valparaiso 21 22.0
77% 31 Purdue 23 30.4, 58 Iowa 14 18.3
76% 132 Southern 23 23.2, 167 Alabama A&M 20 13.7
75% 90 Villanova 45 34.1, 126 James Madison 44 24.1
75% 87 Rhode Island 56 25.4, 160 Hampton 7 16.7
75% 48 Furman 28 27.1, 73 Appalachian State 22 17.2
75% 40 Illinois 25 32.7, 64 Minnesota 14 22.6
74% 92 Cincinnati 46 36.5, 131 Tulane 33 27.3
74% 51 Utah 52 24.7, 83 South Florida 21 16.1
73% 205 Saint Peter's 31 23.0, 221 Iona 7 15.3
73% 45 Louisville 7 28.3, 60 Colorado State 2 19.7
73% 25 Oregon 63 33.4, 63 Arizona 28 24.0
70% 49 Auburn 16 26.7, 68 Mississippi State 14 19.4
69% 138 Western Illinois 27 31.9, 161 Southern Utah 20 24.1
69% 42 Alabama 56 31.4, 71 Texas - El Paso 7 23.8
66% 93 Maine 14 22.4, 103 Richmond 3 17.0
64% 38 Maryland 41 21.6, 43 Virginia 21 16.8
64% 28 Ohio State 38 27.9, 35 Northwestern 20 23.0
63% 174 Jacksonville State 39 24.4, 208 Samford 7 20.1
63% 172 Southern Illinois 23 24.7, 175 Illinois State 17 20.6
63% 94 Pennsylvania 43 22.0, 99 Holy Cross 7 18.1
63% 67 Notre Dame 24 24.0, 72 Pittsburgh 7 19.9
62% 113 Sam Houston State 30 27.6, 120 Northwestern State 14 23.4
61% 229 Siena 20 25.2, 228 La Salle 6 22.3
61% 213 Connecticut 19 23.6, 211 Eastern Michigan 0 20.8
61% 168 East Tennessee State 23 10.6, 164 The Citadel 21 8.1
61% 59 Hofstra 34 36.8, 96 William & Mary 28 34.0
60% 117 New Mexico 30 26.4, 151 Wyoming 29 23.9
60% 5 Oklahoma 14 31.5, 7 Texas 3 29.2
58% 156 Hawaii 38 20.4, 178 Southern Methodist 31 18.9
57% 152 Southwest Texas State 23 25.8, 145 Portland State 20 24.3
54% 110 Delaware 49 26.5, 134 New Hampshire 36 25.8
53% 124 Brown 40 34.7, 107 Fordham 23 34.0
52% 133 Northern Iowa 27 26.5, 154 Southwest Missouri Sta 3 26.2
48% 207 Lafayette 31 21.8, 191 Columbia 14 22.2
47% 56 Marshall 37 35.0, 70 Northern Illinois 15 35.6
46% 137 Tennessee Tech 15 24.3, 114 Murray State 12 25.1
37% 210 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 28 14.8, 182 Texas Southern 22 18.4
37% 121 San Diego State 40 23.0, 81 Eastern Illinois 7 27.7
34% 65 Memphis State 22 9.9, 37 Southern Mississippi 17 14.7
33% 181 Army 28 23.7, 143 Houston 14 30.1
29% 100 North Carolina State 17 17.1, 74 Wake Forest 14 25.1
28% 226 Northeast Louisiana 19 9.8, 185 North Texas 17 17.7
28% 209 Charleston Southern 28 16.5, 184 Jacksonville 7 24.2
27% 155 New Mexico State 24 16.6, 122 Tulsa 7 26.4
27% 88 Kansas 34 24.8, 69 Texas Tech 31 33.1
27% 79 Central Florida 24 13.5, 34 Alabama - Birmingham 7 21.7
26% 163 Colgate 35 16.9, 128 Princeton 10 25.7
26% 104 Missouri 41 13.6, 82 Oklahoma State 38 21.5
23% 26 Georgia 26 15.7, 9 Tennessee 24 26.8
21% 216 Stony Brook 52 18.1, 141 Wagner 30 32.1
21% 102 Rice 45 19.0, 27 Boise State 14 32.5
20% 197 Georgetown 15 20.1, 112 Duquesne 13 33.8
18% 19 Colorado 16 17.7, 6 Kansas State 6 34.2
17% 166 Stephen F. Austin 26 15.2, 85 McNeese State 14 31.5
13% 194 Alabama State 61 24.7, 105 Jackson State 58 45.1
13% 116 Indiana 63 15.6, 36 Wisconsin 32 37.1
10% 219 Montana State 48 17.2, 95 Eastern Washington 38 42.3
9% 203 Dartmouth 32 12.8, 76 Yale 27 40.9
8% 218 Morgan State 52 6.3, 54 North Carolina A&T 42 39.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.22 20 1.25 31 0.85 21 0.89 23 0.95 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 104 78 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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