rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 6 California - Los Angeles over 163 California 144 Fairfield over 233 Canisius 18 Central Florida over 228 Northeast Louisiana 109 Duquesne over 231 La Salle 52 Furman over 177 East Tennessee State 12 Georgia over 122 Kentucky 24 Georgia Southern over 182 The Citadel 48 Hofstra over 155 Elon 54 Marshall over 202 Central Michigan 26 Maryland over 161 Duke 68 North Carolina A&T over 214 Howard 2 Oklahoma over 148 Baylor 25 Syracuse over 138 Temple 90 Tennessee State over 234 Tennessee - Martin 29 Utah over 145 Wyoming 191 Wagner over 237 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 80-90% chance of victory: 207 Alcorn State over 235 Prairie View 28 Toledo over 150 Ball State 79 Bucknell over 186 Georgetown 136 Robert Morris over 216 Central Connecticut 192 Charleston Southern over 229 Samford 180 Dartmouth over 224 Columbia 36 Dayton over 159 Drake 137 Florida A&M over 213 Norfolk State 42 Lehigh over 133 Fordham 16 Georgia Tech over 70 North Carolina State 100 Harvard over 185 Princeton 59 Cincinnati over 188 Houston 13 Kansas State over 51 Texas A&M 157 Kent State over 219 Buffalo 203 Texas Southern over 236 Mississippi Valley State 4 Nebraska over 49 Texas Tech 128 Northwestern State over 209 Nicholls State 69 Ohio over 126 Miami - Ohio 15 Ohio State over 105 San Diego State 8 Oregon over 31 Stanford 39 Pennsylvania over 110 Yale 147 Portland State over 205 Weber State 58 Rhode Island over 140 New Hampshire 91 Rice over 181 Nevada - Reno 130 Eastern Washington over 223 Sacramento State 20 South Carolina over 92 Vanderbilt 77 Texas Christian over 158 Army 73 Troy State over 199 California State - North 121 Utah State over 193 Idaho State 33 Washington over 111 Arizona 98 Youngstown State over 179 Illinois State 70-80% chance of victory: 22 Oregon State over 76 Arizona State 169 Alabama State over 222 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 27 Auburn over 84 Louisiana Tech 43 Boston College over 82 Pittsburgh 35 Brigham Young over 75 Air Force 142 Colgate over 187 Towson 107 Brown over 178 Cornell 30 Fresno State over 61 Boise State 206 Gardner - Webb over 221 Liberty 125 Holy Cross over 173 Lafayette 165 Idaho over 210 Southwestern Louisiana 40 Illinois over 63 Wisconsin 50 Iowa State over 97 Oklahoma State 67 Grambling over 132 Jackson State 44 Mississippi over 80 Middle Tennessee State 153 North Texas over 195 Arkansas State 106 Richmond over 171 Northeastern 66 Montana over 127 Northern Arizona 53 Western Michigan over 123 Northern Illinois 46 Northwestern over 93 Penn State 172 Saint Peter's over 225 Saint John's 113 South Florida over 146 Southern Utah 196 Southwest Missouri State over 215 Indiana State 7 Texas over 11 Colorado 71 Hawaii over 162 Tulsa 14 Florida State over 64 Virginia 60-70% chance of victory: 41 Louisville over 47 Southern Mississippi 131 Sam Houston State over 141 Stephen F. Austin 143 Western Carolina over 175 Tennessee - Chattanooga 10 Tennessee over 17 Alabama 104 Sacred Heart over 156 Albany 23 Clemson over 34 North Carolina 117 Delaware over 112 William & Mary 198 Morgan State over 226 Delaware State 45 East Carolina over 57 Memphis State 114 Tennessee Tech over 149 Eastern Kentucky 212 Hampton over 217 South Carolina State 62 Iowa over 72 Indiana 88 Kansas over 83 Missouri 86 Maine over 96 Villanova 124 James Madison over 166 Massachusetts 37 Louisiana State over 89 Mississippi State 184 Rutgers over 194 Navy 170 San Diego over 176 Butler 218 Iona over 230 Siena 120 Eastern Illinois over 160 Southern Illinois 135 Monmouth over 183 Stony Brook 168 Texas - El Paso over 190 San Jose State 116 Western Illinois over 118 Northern Iowa 102 Western Kentucky over 103 McNeese State 50-60% chance of victory: 115 Akron over 101 Bowling Green 87 Alabama - Birmingham over 78 Tulane 164 Jacksonville State over 152 Southwest Texas State 65 Minnesota over 56 Michigan State 74 Nevada - Las Vegas over 55 Colorado State 21 Southern California over 38 Notre Dame 174 Southeast Missouri State over 154 Murray State 81 Appalachian State over 108 Wofford
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