prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 191 Wagner 38 44.4, 237 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 7.4
92% 109 Duquesne 34 46.1, 231 La Salle 0 4.3
92% 90 Tennessee State 55 55.2, 234 Tennessee - Martin 7 3.3
92% 68 North Carolina A&T 76 47.2, 214 Howard 30 14.0
92% 54 Marshall 42 47.5, 202 Central Michigan 21 13.6
92% 52 Furman 31 39.0, 177 East Tennessee State 6 8.6
92% 26 Maryland 59 43.3, 161 Duke 17 9.0
92% 24 Georgia Southern 14 41.3, 182 The Citadel 6 3.9
92% 18 Central Florida 38 48.7, 228 Northeast Louisiana 6 0.2
92% 12 Georgia 43 45.1, 122 Kentucky 29 16.7
92% 6 California - Los Angel 56 54.1, 163 California 17 5.4
92% 2 Oklahoma 33 51.5, 148 Baylor 17 2.6
91% 144 Fairfield 63 40.2, 233 Canisius 44 10.3
91% 48 Hofstra 42 39.4, 155 Elon 21 13.1
91% 29 Utah 35 40.8, 145 Wyoming 0 13.2
91% 25 Syracuse 45 36.6, 138 Temple 3 7.3
91% 19 Washington State 53 48.7, 167 Montana State 28 15.5
89% 203 Texas Southern 38 41.2, 236 Mississippi Valley Sta 21 17.0
89% 79 Bucknell 34 34.8, 186 Georgetown 0 11.7
89% 15 Ohio State 27 32.1, 105 San Diego State 12 6.7
89% 4 Nebraska 41 40.5, 49 Texas Tech 31 15.9
88% 128 Northwestern State 47 31.0, 209 Nicholls State 14 8.5
88% 91 Rice 33 34.6, 181 Nevada - Reno 30 13.4
88% 73 Troy State 44 41.3, 199 California State - Nor 31 13.3
88% 36 Dayton 24 40.6, 159 Drake 23 19.4
87% 157 Kent State 35 31.0, 219 Buffalo 13 11.0
86% 137 Florida A&M 47 31.5, 213 Norfolk State 9 11.2
86% 98 Youngstown State 44 36.5, 179 Illinois State 30 17.4
86% 33 Washington 31 38.2, 111 Arizona 28 17.9
86% 20 South Carolina 46 28.5, 92 Vanderbilt 14 8.9
85% 100 Harvard 28 32.6, 185 Princeton 26 15.1
85% 77 Texas Christian 38 33.6, 158 Army 20 15.7
85% 58 Rhode Island 31 39.6, 140 New Hampshire 27 21.1
84% 130 Eastern Washington 42 38.3, 223 Sacramento State 35 19.9
84% 59 Cincinnati 29 42.2, 188 Houston 28 21.5
84% 16 Georgia Tech 27 36.4, 70 North Carolina State 17 19.1
83% 121 Utah State 28 45.4, 193 Idaho State 27 28.7
83% 39 Pennsylvania 21 31.5, 110 Yale 3 15.6
82% 147 Portland State 65 40.4, 205 Weber State 43 24.7
82% 42 Lehigh 31 37.4, 133 Fordham 21 22.1
80% 136 Robert Morris 38 33.2, 216 Central Connecticut 18 17.9
80% 27 Auburn 48 36.1, 84 Louisiana Tech 41 20.7
79% 50 Iowa State 28 28.6, 97 Oklahoma State 14 15.8
78% 125 Holy Cross 63 27.3, 173 Lafayette 53 15.8
78% 35 Brigham Young 63 39.7, 75 Air Force 33 27.3
78% 14 Florida State 43 34.7, 64 Virginia 7 22.8
77% 113 South Florida 42 32.4, 146 Southern Utah 12 21.5
77% 71 Hawaii 36 32.9, 162 Tulsa 15 20.3
77% 43 Boston College 45 28.2, 82 Pittsburgh 7 16.7
76% 169 Alabama State 23 35.4, 222 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 23.9
76% 153 North Texas 45 27.9, 195 Arkansas State 0 17.1
76% 142 Colgate 37 26.2, 187 Towson 5 16.3
76% 44 Mississippi 45 42.6, 80 Middle Tennessee State 17 33.5
75% 66 Montana 38 31.9, 127 Northern Arizona 27 22.0
74% 172 Saint Peter's 28 12.8, 225 Saint John's 7 5.5
74% 107 Brown 49 43.5, 178 Cornell 21 34.5
73% 40 Illinois 42 29.8, 63 Wisconsin 35 21.3
72% 67 Grambling 30 41.2, 132 Jackson State 16 33.4
71% 206 Gardner - Webb 29 31.3, 221 Liberty 25 23.4
71% 7 Texas 41 29.8, 11 Colorado 7 22.0
69% 104 Sacred Heart 32 30.3, 156 Albany 17 23.1
67% 218 Iona 21 25.3, 230 Siena 19 19.2
67% 184 Rutgers 23 23.0, 194 Navy 17 17.0
67% 135 Monmouth 33 21.2, 183 Stony Brook 14 15.4
67% 62 Iowa 42 35.6, 72 Indiana 28 29.8
67% 37 Louisiana State 42 23.8, 89 Mississippi State 0 18.0
66% 86 Maine 44 33.9, 96 Villanova 40 28.2
64% 131 Sam Houston State 24 33.1, 141 Stephen F. Austin 21 27.6
64% 102 Western Kentucky 21 19.8, 103 McNeese State 0 15.9
63% 212 Hampton 28 39.8, 217 South Carolina State 17 35.5
63% 120 Eastern Illinois 49 25.5, 160 Southern Illinois 21 21.2
63% 45 East Carolina 32 28.9, 57 Memphis State 11 24.3
63% 41 Louisville 24 19.1, 47 Southern Mississippi 14 15.8
63% 10 Tennessee 35 23.8, 17 Alabama 24 19.6
61% 143 Western Carolina 21 31.0, 175 Tennessee - Chattanoog 3 28.2
59% 81 Appalachian State 34 29.3, 108 Wofford 23 27.2
57% 87 Alabama - Birmingham 34 32.0, 78 Tulane 27 30.5
56% 164 Jacksonville State 38 18.9, 152 Southwest Texas State 17 17.6
56% 65 Minnesota 28 21.1, 56 Michigan State 19 20.1
49% 154 Murray State 45 22.7, 174 Southeast Missouri Sta 35 23.0
49% 55 Colorado State 26 18.5, 74 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 18.7
43% 38 Notre Dame 27 19.3, 21 Southern California 16 20.5
41% 101 Bowling Green 16 25.2, 115 Akron 11 27.4
40% 112 William & Mary 21 25.0, 117 Delaware 17 27.7
38% 149 Eastern Kentucky 34 14.9, 114 Tennessee Tech 10 18.3
38% 83 Missouri 38 25.8, 88 Kansas 34 29.5
37% 176 Butler 19 29.2, 170 San Diego 16 33.0
37% 118 Northern Iowa 17 26.8, 116 Western Illinois 14 31.5
35% 166 Massachusetts 43 21.9, 124 James Madison 20 27.0
35% 34 North Carolina 38 27.6, 23 Clemson 3 32.7
33% 226 Delaware State 38 31.0, 198 Morgan State 12 37.1
32% 190 San Jose State 40 32.8, 168 Texas - El Paso 28 39.1
28% 76 Arizona State 41 27.7, 22 Oregon State 24 37.3
26% 215 Indiana State 25 15.4, 196 Southwest Missouri Sta 19 24.0
25% 171 Northeastern 7 12.6, 106 Richmond 0 20.8
23% 123 Northern Illinois 20 21.0, 53 Western Michigan 12 31.7
22% 93 Penn State 38 15.6, 46 Northwestern 35 27.8
21% 210 Southwestern Louisiana 54 24.5, 165 Idaho 37 38.0
21% 61 Boise State 35 22.5, 30 Fresno State 30 35.7
20% 126 Miami - Ohio 36 18.4, 69 Ohio 24 33.8
19% 51 Texas A&M 31 13.2, 13 Kansas State 24 27.5
17% 31 Stanford 49 23.8, 8 Oregon 42 40.2
16% 224 Columbia 27 19.6, 180 Dartmouth 20 36.4
15% 229 Samford 45 9.0, 192 Charleston Southern 24 26.5
12% 150 Ball State 24 16.0, 28 Toledo 20 39.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.90 24 0.97 26 0.96 30 0.94 17 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 105 79 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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