rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 1 Miami - Florida over 82 West Virginia 71 Appalachian State over 202 Tennessee - Chattanooga 40 Dayton over 229 Canisius 95 Duquesne over 231 Siena 46 Georgia Southern over 174 East Tennessee State 57 Grambling over 206 Texas Southern 30 Oregon State over 157 California 168 Albany over 237 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 90 South Florida over 217 Liberty 54 Southern Mississippi over 173 Houston 53 Toledo over 178 Navy 111 Western Carolina over 225 Virginia Military 135 Southern over 235 Mississippi Valley State 80-90% chance of victory: 136 California Poly over 218 Alcorn State 36 Texas Tech over 122 Baylor 55 Boise State over 161 Nevada - Reno 101 Ball State over 199 Connecticut 129 Florida A&M over 209 Hampton 110 Harvard over 207 Dartmouth 106 Sacred Heart over 211 Iona 145 Jackson State over 219 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 26 Kansas State over 85 Kansas 48 Lehigh over 120 Holy Cross 52 Marshall over 143 Akron 4 Texas over 74 Missouri 64 Montana over 144 Portland State 179 Morehead State over 230 Austin Peay 103 Ohio over 162 Kent State 126 Robert Morris over 191 Wagner 216 Samford over 234 Tennessee - Martin 13 Brigham Young over 97 San Diego State 189 Southwestern Louisiana over 226 Northeast Louisiana 86 Troy State over 165 Southern Utah 34 Central Florida over 154 Utah State 3 Virginia Tech over 22 Syracuse 123 Western Illinois over 198 Southwest Missouri State 66 Nevada - Las Vegas over 170 Wyoming 2 Florida over 18 Georgia 70-80% chance of victory: 44 Southern California over 80 Arizona 72 Tulane over 150 Army 17 Boston College over 42 Notre Dame 41 Pennsylvania over 87 Brown 105 Northern Illinois over 195 Central Michigan 19 Utah over 68 Colorado State 128 Yale over 205 Columbia 99 Vanderbilt over 176 Duke 147 Eastern Washington over 194 California State - North 169 Elon over 203 Charleston Southern 10 Florida State over 29 Maryland 107 Northern Iowa over 175 Illinois State 8 Michigan over 49 Iowa 11 Louisiana State over 35 Mississippi 140 Northern Arizona over 185 Montana State 172 Southwest Texas State over 223 Nicholls State 220 Norfolk State over 232 Howard 58 North Carolina State over 81 Virginia 159 Northeastern over 192 Saint Mary's 24 Colorado over 94 Oklahoma State 164 Princeton over 193 Cornell 32 Purdue over 61 Northwestern 139 San Jose State over 182 Tulsa 151 Southern Methodist over 181 Texas - El Paso 5 California - Los Angeles over 16 Stanford 196 Stony Brook over 214 Jacksonville 9 Tennessee over 15 South Carolina 21 Texas A&M over 50 Iowa State 137 Monmouth over 201 Towson 47 Clemson over 92 Wake Forest 60-70% chance of victory: 33 Washington over 56 Arizona State 23 Auburn over 70 Arkansas 177 Idaho over 215 Arkansas State 39 North Carolina A&T over 75 Bethune - Cookman 37 Louisville over 73 Cincinnati 108 Eastern Illinois over 117 Tennessee State 77 Bucknell over 132 Fordham 227 Saint John's over 233 La Salle 130 Colgate over 171 Lafayette 100 Louisiana Tech over 104 Rice 125 McNeese State over 146 Sam Houston State 78 Memphis State over 93 Alabama - Birmingham 59 Western Michigan over 113 Miami - Ohio 112 Middle Tennessee State over 119 New Mexico State 6 Nebraska over 7 Oklahoma 124 Northwestern State over 134 Jacksonville State 28 Ohio State over 69 Penn State 188 Delaware State over 213 South Carolina State 163 Tennessee Tech over 186 Southeast Missouri State 118 Wofford over 156 The Citadel 115 Villanova over 133 Massachusetts 160 Idaho State over 208 Weber State 88 William & Mary over 83 Maine 65 Wisconsin over 63 Michigan State 84 Youngstown State over 91 Western Kentucky 50-60% chance of victory: 60 Hawaii over 51 Fresno State 138 Alabama A&M over 155 Alabama State 152 Drake over 166 Butler 224 Buffalo over 228 Eastern Michigan 180 Southern Illinois over 204 Indiana State 184 Georgetown over 200 Marist 96 New Mexico over 79 Air Force 76 Rhode Island over 102 Richmond 121 Pittsburgh over 149 Temple 197 Valparaiso over 187 San Diego 12 Oregon over 27 Washington State
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