rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 93 Eastern Illinois over 236 Tennessee - Martin 206 Alcorn State over 235 Mississippi Valley State 4 Texas over 156 Baylor 99 Bethune - Cookman over 208 Hampton 86 Cincinnati over 222 Connecticut 32 Dayton over 197 Valparaiso 2 Florida over 94 Vanderbilt 3 Nebraska over 100 Kansas 1 Miami - Florida over 162 Temple 95 Northern Illinois over 226 Eastern Michigan 6 Oklahoma over 196 Tulsa 51 Pennsylvania over 165 Princeton 57 Appalachian State over 228 Virginia Military 117 Western Carolina over 230 Liberty 80-90% chance of victory: 7 Brigham Young over 66 Colorado State 101 Ball State over 200 Central Michigan 141 Ohio over 227 Buffalo 64 Central Florida over 126 Akron 36 Lehigh over 132 Colgate 31 Colorado over 92 Missouri 37 North Carolina State over 171 Duke 174 Idaho over 221 Northeast Louisiana 72 Montana over 195 Idaho State 40 Maryland over 90 Troy State 114 Middle Tennessee State over 207 Arkansas State 127 Monmouth over 189 Albany 13 Oregon over 42 Arizona State 8 Virginia Tech over 85 Pittsburgh 113 Robert Morris over 215 Stony Brook 157 Southern Utah over 224 Saint Mary's 163 Saint Peter's over 233 Siena 65 South Florida over 173 Houston 111 Youngstown State over 204 Southern Illinois 98 Northwestern State over 201 Southwest Texas State 144 Stephen F. Austin over 198 Nicholls State 83 Louisiana Tech over 196 Tulsa 89 Sacred Heart over 186 Wagner 104 West Virginia over 187 Rutgers 61 North Carolina A&T over 160 Jackson State 70-80% chance of victory: 28 East Carolina over 69 Texas Christian 115 Air Force over 147 Army 63 Grambling over 124 Alabama State 79 Bucknell over 136 Holy Cross 175 Marist over 232 Canisius 5 Florida State over 43 Clemson 77 Duquesne over 167 Fairfield 67 Fresno State over 110 Rice 56 Hawaii over 107 San Jose State 70 Western Kentucky over 153 Illinois State 14 Kansas State over 55 Iowa State 50 Marshall over 140 Kent State 11 Michigan over 49 Michigan State 120 Southern Methodist over 179 Nevada - Reno 151 Northern Iowa over 188 Indiana State 10 Tennessee over 58 Notre Dame 158 Portland State over 180 Montana State 21 Purdue over 35 Illinois 137 Elon over 209 Samford 133 Eastern Kentucky over 192 Southeast Missouri State 168 The Citadel over 213 Tennessee - Chattanooga 148 Tennessee State over 170 Murray State 22 Louisville over 96 Tulane 60-70% chance of victory: 19 Georgia Tech over 18 North Carolina 217 Central Connecticut over 231 Saint John's 81 Arizona over 123 California 199 California State - North over 212 Sacramento State 116 Harvard over 169 Columbia 60 Georgia Southern over 59 Furman 48 Northwestern over 88 Indiana 134 James Madison over 128 Delaware 145 Fordham over 176 Lafayette 46 Boise State over 83 Louisiana Tech 30 Minnesota over 44 Ohio State 23 Mississippi over 38 Arkansas 106 Mississippi State over 112 Kentucky 211 Morgan State over 220 Norfolk State 39 Utah over 73 Nevada - Las Vegas 82 Villanova over 130 New Hampshire 122 New Mexico State over 143 North Texas 102 Rhode Island over 119 Maine 45 Hofstra over 91 Richmond 150 Sam Houston State over 146 Western Illinois 185 San Diego over 190 Georgetown 68 New Mexico over 121 San Diego State 47 Southern California over 52 Oregon State 17 Texas Tech over 25 Texas A&M 12 Stanford over 34 Washington 154 California Poly over 183 Weber State 41 Iowa over 75 Wisconsin 109 Wofford over 139 East Tennessee State 97 Brown over 155 Yale 50-60% chance of victory: 29 Alabama over 24 Louisiana State 74 Miami - Ohio over 108 Bowling Green 191 Dartmouth over 182 Cornell 103 Southern over 125 Florida A&M 219 Howard over 216 South Carolina State 152 Tennessee Tech over 164 Jacksonville State 225 La Salle over 218 Iona 149 Massachusetts over 135 Northeastern 138 Northern Arizona over 129 Eastern Washington 54 Penn State over 33 Southern Mississippi 142 Drake over 161 Southwest Missouri State 76 Wake Forest over 105 Virginia 15 California - Los Angeles over 26 Washington State
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