prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 206 Alcorn State 35 39.8, 235 Mississippi Valley Sta 28 7.4
92% 95 Northern Illinois 40 44.9, 226 Eastern Michigan 17 9.0
92% 93 Eastern Illinois 56 66.0, 236 Tennessee - Martin 16 11.6
92% 86 Cincinnati 45 43.1, 222 Connecticut 28 7.3
92% 57 Appalachian State 27 50.2, 228 Virginia Military 17 9.2
92% 32 Dayton 49 44.9, 197 Valparaiso 3 4.3
92% 6 Oklahoma 58 55.8, 196 Tulsa 0 2.7
92% 4 Texas 49 55.8, 156 Baylor 10 11.4
92% 3 Nebraska 51 45.6, 100 Kansas 7 12.8
92% 2 Florida 71 50.5, 94 Vanderbilt 13 9.9
92% 1 Miami - Florida 38 66.9, 162 Temple 0 3.2
91% 117 Western Carolina 63 48.6, 230 Liberty 0 15.6
91% 51 Pennsylvania 21 32.7, 165 Princeton 10 6.4
90% 101 Ball State 38 33.5, 200 Central Michigan 34 9.1
90% 37 North Carolina State 55 41.4, 171 Duke 31 17.9
89% 163 Saint Peter's 35 26.0, 233 Siena 0 5.6
89% 114 Middle Tennessee State 54 46.3, 207 Arkansas State 6 23.3
89% 65 South Florida 45 53.9, 173 Houston 6 26.9
89% 16 South Carolina 38 34.1, 109 Wofford 14 8.1
88% 113 Robert Morris 45 42.8, 215 Stony Brook 19 18.3
88% 104 West Virginia 80 30.8, 187 Rutgers 7 9.7
88% 72 Montana 32 43.1, 195 Idaho State 28 21.6
88% 7 Brigham Young 56 43.3, 66 Colorado State 34 21.9
84% 111 Youngstown State 31 30.9, 204 Southern Illinois 7 14.6
84% 98 Northwestern State 20 33.2, 201 Southwest Texas State 17 14.6
84% 89 Sacred Heart 45 36.8, 186 Wagner 24 19.4
83% 36 Lehigh 25 37.7, 132 Colgate 22 21.8
82% 144 Stephen F. Austin 23 32.4, 198 Nicholls State 21 16.4
82% 64 Central Florida 57 34.2, 126 Akron 17 18.4
82% 31 Colorado 38 33.0, 92 Missouri 24 18.0
81% 174 Idaho 42 36.1, 221 Northeast Louisiana 38 21.1
81% 139 East Tennessee State 26 35.7, 223 Charleston Southern 0 15.5
81% 40 Maryland 47 32.6, 90 Troy State 14 17.6
80% 175 Marist 24 37.2, 232 Canisius 20 21.1
80% 77 Duquesne 51 36.5, 167 Fairfield 19 22.4
80% 67 Fresno State 52 34.4, 110 Rice 24 20.0
80% 61 North Carolina A&T 42 44.3, 160 Jackson State 35 24.5
80% 13 Oregon 42 39.8, 42 Arizona State 24 25.4
79% 151 Northern Iowa 34 34.3, 188 Indiana State 13 20.5
79% 50 Marshall 42 34.6, 140 Kent State 21 21.7
79% 5 Florida State 41 38.3, 43 Clemson 27 25.3
78% 79 Bucknell 21 29.8, 136 Holy Cross 14 17.3
78% 56 Hawaii 34 45.8, 107 San Jose State 10 33.0
78% 22 Louisville 52 40.7, 96 Tulane 7 27.9
78% 10 Tennessee 28 29.3, 58 Notre Dame 18 18.2
77% 70 Western Kentucky 58 23.4, 153 Illinois State 14 13.0
76% 158 Portland State 33 36.1, 180 Montana State 21 25.6
75% 168 The Citadel 20 18.7, 213 Tennessee - Chattanoog 17 10.8
75% 133 Eastern Kentucky 42 27.9, 192 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 18.8
73% 28 East Carolina 37 31.4, 69 Texas Christian 30 23.1
71% 148 Tennessee State 38 40.4, 170 Murray State 25 30.1
70% 115 Air Force 34 37.7, 147 Army 24 29.9
70% 14 Kansas State 42 32.8, 55 Iowa State 3 24.7
69% 116 Harvard 45 25.6, 169 Columbia 33 19.0
69% 68 New Mexico 20 26.4, 121 San Diego State 15 19.5
68% 199 California State - Nor 49 38.4, 212 Sacramento State 36 32.0
68% 97 Brown 37 30.5, 155 Yale 34 24.0
68% 45 Hofstra 35 26.0, 91 Richmond 21 19.7
67% 145 Fordham 45 31.2, 176 Lafayette 24 24.8
65% 17 Texas Tech 12 30.0, 25 Texas A&M 0 24.6
64% 82 Villanova 38 44.0, 130 New Hampshire 35 40.2
63% 217 Central Connecticut 12 19.1, 231 Saint John's 7 15.6
63% 106 Mississippi State 17 29.0, 112 Kentucky 14 24.7
63% 81 Arizona 38 31.6, 123 California 24 27.6
62% 60 Georgia Southern 20 22.6, 59 Furman 10 19.3
61% 150 Sam Houston State 49 31.6, 146 Western Illinois 24 28.5
61% 47 Southern California 16 25.2, 52 Oregon State 13 22.0
61% 39 Utah 42 22.3, 73 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 19.7
61% 19 Georgia Tech 28 26.9, 18 North Carolina 21 23.8
59% 74 Miami - Ohio 24 23.5, 108 Bowling Green 21 21.5
58% 149 Massachusetts 17 21.3, 135 Northeastern 10 19.8
56% 76 Wake Forest 34 19.4, 105 Virginia 30 18.1
54% 138 Northern Arizona 42 36.7, 129 Eastern Washington 33 35.8
53% 152 Tennessee Tech 35 27.8, 164 Jacksonville State 27 27.1
52% 103 Southern 17 24.1, 125 Florida A&M 14 23.7
51% 225 La Salle 30 20.7, 218 Iona 27 20.5
51% 54 Penn State 38 20.4, 33 Southern Mississippi 20 20.3
46% 161 Southwest Missouri Sta 63 23.2, 142 Drake 14 24.0
46% 24 Louisiana State 35 21.1, 29 Alabama 21 21.9
44% 216 South Carolina State 37 26.2, 219 Howard 33 27.5
42% 26 Washington State 20 29.3, 15 California - Los Angel 14 30.9
41% 182 Cornell 28 28.0, 191 Dartmouth 24 29.7
39% 128 Delaware 28 21.0, 134 James Madison 3 23.6
39% 83 Louisiana Tech 48 40.8, 46 Boise State 42 43.3
38% 190 Georgetown 24 23.5, 185 San Diego 21 27.3
37% 75 Wisconsin 34 28.5, 41 Iowa 28 32.6
36% 88 Indiana 56 38.2, 48 Northwestern 21 42.3
35% 183 Weber State 43 23.4, 154 California Poly 40 29.2
34% 34 Washington 42 34.0, 12 Stanford 28 39.0
33% 220 Norfolk State 33 17.5, 211 Morgan State 27 22.9
33% 143 North Texas 22 16.3, 122 New Mexico State 20 22.5
33% 119 Maine 26 17.9, 102 Rhode Island 14 23.4
33% 44 Ohio State 31 24.2, 30 Minnesota 28 31.3
32% 38 Arkansas 58 23.2, 23 Mississippi 56 30.2
29% 49 Michigan State 26 20.0, 11 Michigan 24 27.9
28% 35 Illinois 38 20.7, 21 Purdue 13 28.9
24% 179 Nevada - Reno 35 18.7, 120 Southern Methodist 14 29.0
24% 124 Alabama State 45 21.6, 63 Grambling 38 31.8
23% 209 Samford 43 17.4, 137 Elon 36 30.2
20% 224 Saint Mary's 28 22.1, 157 Southern Utah 21 37.7
16% 189 Albany 19 10.1, 127 Monmouth 10 26.4
16% 85 Pittsburgh 38 15.0, 8 Virginia Tech 7 34.7
14% 227 Buffalo 44 18.2, 141 Ohio 0 37.6
10% 208 Hampton 44 15.7, 99 Bethune - Cookman 41 41.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.12 28 0.88 23 1.03 26 1.00 14 1.01 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 104 77 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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