rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 82 Tennessee Tech over 234 Tennessee - Martin 102 East Tennessee State over 228 Charleston Southern 62 Duquesne over 235 Canisius 54 Alabama - Birmingham over 190 Houston 6 Kansas State over 84 Missouri 39 Lehigh over 172 Lafayette 71 Hofstra over 224 Liberty 208 Marist over 233 Siena 43 Marshall over 201 Ohio 1 Miami - Florida over 14 Syracuse 79 Middle Tennessee State over 199 Connecticut 115 Alabama State over 232 Mississippi Valley State 38 North Carolina over 198 Duke 45 Notre Dame over 155 Navy 31 Boston College over 226 Rutgers 22 Stanford over 150 California 221 Stony Brook over 236 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 36 Furman over 204 Tennessee - Chattanooga 57 Toledo over 216 Eastern Michigan 42 West Virginia over 145 Temple 70 Western Kentucky over 215 Southern Illinois 80-90% chance of victory: 55 Boise State over 129 San Jose State 99 Eastern Illinois over 185 Murray State 2 Florida over 9 Florida State 142 Hampton over 223 Morgan State 134 Southern Utah over 219 Idaho State 135 Jackson State over 210 Alcorn State 94 Memphis State over 175 Army 30 Fresno State over 162 Nevada - Reno 40 Oregon State over 130 Northern Arizona 85 Pennsylvania over 174 Cornell 123 Portland State over 179 California State - North 108 Rice over 184 Texas - El Paso 74 Sacred Heart over 141 Monmouth 51 Southern Mississippi over 126 Tulane 116 Southwest Missouri State over 176 Illinois State 98 Sam Houston State over 192 Southwest Texas State 110 Troy State over 177 Jacksonville State 81 Western Carolina over 154 The Citadel 72 Western Michigan over 187 Central Michigan 70-80% chance of victory: 178 Alabama A&M over 205 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 44 Arkansas over 83 Mississippi State 95 Oklahoma State over 168 Baylor 105 Brown over 169 Columbia 132 Princeton over 207 Dartmouth 196 Delaware State over 220 Howard 128 Eastern Kentucky over 167 Tennessee State 122 Fordham over 158 Holy Cross 112 North Texas over 173 Idaho 16 Iowa over 52 Minnesota 80 Iowa State over 147 Kansas 7 Tennessee over 77 Kentucky 93 Montana over 165 Montana State 90 Maine over 152 New Hampshire 106 McNeese State over 186 Nicholls State 109 Northern Illinois over 153 Ball State 133 Northern Iowa over 180 California Poly 119 Northwestern State over 144 Stephen F. Austin 117 Saint Peter's over 157 Fairfield 33 South Carolina over 58 Clemson 120 North Carolina A&T over 182 South Carolina State 138 New Mexico State over 211 Southwestern Louisiana 4 Oklahoma over 19 Texas Tech 139 Utah State over 164 Weber State 15 Virginia Tech over 69 Virginia 26 Georgia Tech over 66 Wake Forest 11 Michigan over 63 Wisconsin 96 Harvard over 156 Yale 60-70% chance of victory: 10 Louisville over 34 East Carolina 100 Air Force over 101 Nevada - Las Vegas 143 Akron over 136 Kent State 213 Arkansas State over 218 Northeast Louisiana 32 Auburn over 50 Alabama 20 Brigham Young over 29 Utah 88 Hawaii over 92 Miami - Ohio 124 Rhode Island over 160 Massachusetts 64 New Mexico over 68 Colorado State 25 North Carolina State over 23 Maryland 12 Ohio State over 24 Illinois 48 Penn State over 46 Indiana 131 San Diego State over 137 Wyoming 59 Villanova over 73 Delaware 206 Samford over 229 Virginia Military 17 Washington State over 47 Washington 118 Youngstown State over 125 Wofford 121 Florida A&M over 146 Bethune - Cookman 50-60% chance of victory: 231 Saint John's over 225 Iona 103 Colgate over 91 Bucknell 194 Georgetown over 181 Towson 171 Western Illinois over 202 Indiana State 127 Northeastern over 148 James Madison 41 Mississippi over 35 Georgia 76 Purdue over 65 Michigan State 89 William & Mary over 111 Richmond 28 Southern California over 21 California - Los Angeles 163 Southern Methodist over 195 Tulsa
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