prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 115 Alabama State 57 56.2, 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 24 16.4
92% 82 Tennessee Tech 41 58.4, 234 Tennessee - Martin 7 6.8
92% 70 Western Kentucky 36 38.4, 215 Southern Illinois 6 4.1
92% 62 Duquesne 63 67.3, 235 Canisius 15 3.7
92% 57 Toledo 28 49.6, 216 Eastern Michigan 7 12.4
92% 43 Marshall 42 46.6, 201 Ohio 18 8.8
92% 39 Lehigh 41 45.4, 172 Lafayette 6 14.7
92% 38 North Carolina 52 50.4, 198 Duke 17 15.9
92% 36 Furman 42 45.8, 204 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 11.0
92% 31 Boston College 38 47.1, 226 Rutgers 7 6.1
92% 22 Stanford 35 51.7, 150 California 28 21.7
91% 208 Marist 14 31.7, 233 Siena 7 5.0
91% 79 Middle Tennessee State 38 46.3, 199 Connecticut 14 19.3
91% 71 Hofstra 40 54.8, 224 Liberty 3 23.4
91% 54 Alabama - Birmingham 43 39.5, 190 Houston 21 12.3
91% 45 Notre Dame 34 38.7, 155 Navy 16 9.2
91% 1 Miami - Florida 59 34.0, 14 Syracuse 0 6.6
90% 221 Stony Brook 34 34.9, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 10.2
90% 30 Fresno State 61 47.1, 162 Nevada - Reno 14 21.4
89% 6 Kansas State 40 50.4, 67 Louisiana Tech 7 25.4
88% 72 Western Michigan 20 43.7, 187 Central Michigan 17 18.2
87% 142 Hampton 35 43.0, 223 Morgan State 20 20.2
87% 85 Pennsylvania 38 36.0, 174 Cornell 14 14.6
87% 81 Western Carolina 28 29.7, 154 The Citadel 25 11.0
86% 99 Eastern Illinois 37 47.0, 185 Murray State 6 27.8
86% 94 Memphis State 42 35.7, 175 Army 10 15.8
86% 55 Boise State 56 43.3, 129 San Jose State 6 24.6
86% 51 Southern Mississippi 59 41.8, 126 Tulane 6 23.0
85% 135 Jackson State 52 39.2, 210 Alcorn State 28 20.2
85% 108 Rice 27 46.0, 184 Texas - El Paso 17 27.0
85% 2 Florida 37 47.2, 9 Florida State 13 27.5
84% 40 Oregon State 45 41.7, 130 Northern Arizona 10 18.7
83% 116 Southwest Missouri Sta 48 37.4, 176 Illinois State 31 20.5
83% 98 Sam Houston State 31 34.7, 192 Southwest Texas State 13 19.1
83% 74 Sacred Heart 44 26.0, 141 Monmouth 14 10.4
82% 110 Troy State 21 40.5, 177 Jacksonville State 3 22.9
81% 123 Portland State 50 44.5, 179 California State - Nor 43 30.0
80% 7 Tennessee 38 42.3, 77 Kentucky 35 26.8
79% 109 Northern Illinois 33 31.9, 153 Ball State 29 18.7
79% 106 McNeese State 34 29.2, 186 Nicholls State 27 16.6
79% 93 Montana 38 32.6, 165 Montana State 27 19.9
79% 44 Arkansas 24 30.6, 83 Mississippi State 21 17.2
78% 133 Northern Iowa 31 35.5, 180 California Poly 13 21.8
78% 132 Princeton 35 30.6, 207 Dartmouth 14 18.8
78% 118 Youngstown State 45 30.5, 159 Elon 7 18.2
78% 117 Saint Peter's 17 23.8, 157 Fairfield 7 11.6
78% 95 Oklahoma State 38 29.8, 168 Baylor 22 18.2
78% 4 Oklahoma 30 32.3, 19 Texas Tech 13 19.8
77% 122 Fordham 24 31.2, 158 Holy Cross 21 19.9
77% 90 Maine 57 31.4, 152 New Hampshire 24 21.0
77% 16 Iowa 42 33.7, 52 Minnesota 24 20.9
77% 15 Virginia Tech 31 30.4, 69 Virginia 17 19.6
77% 11 Michigan 20 33.7, 63 Wisconsin 17 22.3
76% 196 Delaware State 43 35.0, 220 Howard 31 25.0
76% 138 New Mexico State 49 35.8, 211 Southwestern Louisiana 46 25.5
76% 128 Eastern Kentucky 13 35.3, 167 Tennessee State 10 24.0
76% 112 North Texas 50 35.3, 173 Idaho 27 25.1
76% 96 Harvard 35 33.0, 156 Yale 23 23.1
75% 139 Utah State 56 41.3, 164 Weber State 43 32.5
75% 119 Northwestern State 31 27.8, 144 Stephen F. Austin 17 18.3
75% 80 Iowa State 49 28.5, 147 Kansas 7 19.7
75% 33 South Carolina 20 27.8, 58 Clemson 15 18.3
73% 178 Alabama A&M 35 20.2, 205 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 0 12.7
73% 105 Brown 45 37.3, 169 Columbia 21 29.0
71% 26 Georgia Tech 38 32.9, 66 Wake Forest 33 25.1
68% 59 Villanova 19 36.0, 73 Delaware 14 28.8
65% 206 Samford 46 31.9, 229 Virginia Military 28 26.5
64% 121 Florida A&M 31 29.4, 146 Bethune - Cookman 21 24.4
64% 20 Brigham Young 24 33.8, 29 Utah 21 28.8
64% 10 Louisville 39 26.8, 34 East Carolina 34 22.0
63% 88 Hawaii 52 27.3, 92 Miami - Ohio 51 23.3
62% 131 San Diego State 38 21.5, 137 Wyoming 16 18.1
61% 48 Penn State 28 35.8, 46 Indiana 14 33.2
60% 171 Western Illinois 52 27.5, 202 Indiana State 15 25.4
60% 75 Bowling Green 43 24.3, 107 Northwestern 42 21.5
59% 127 Northeastern 24 15.6, 148 James Madison 17 14.0
59% 28 Southern California 27 20.3, 21 California - Los Angel 0 18.7
58% 163 Southern Methodist 24 23.4, 195 Tulsa 14 21.9
58% 76 Purdue 24 23.7, 65 Michigan State 14 22.2
55% 143 Akron 41 26.2, 161 Buffalo 14 25.1
55% 89 William & Mary 23 19.0, 111 Richmond 20 18.2
52% 103 Colgate 15 17.1, 91 Bucknell 13 16.9
51% 125 Wofford 24 19.9, 102 East Tennessee State 3 19.8
48% 181 Towson 27 24.1, 194 Georgetown 9 24.6
47% 225 Iona 30 18.8, 231 Saint John's 16 19.3
42% 35 Georgia 35 28.2, 41 Mississippi 15 29.7
39% 23 Maryland 23 27.6, 25 North Carolina State 19 30.7
38% 101 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 30.0, 100 Air Force 10 33.2
38% 68 Colorado State 24 21.5, 64 New Mexico 17 25.1
37% 160 Massachusetts 24 19.2, 124 Rhode Island 7 23.2
37% 47 Washington 26 26.3, 17 Washington State 14 30.7
36% 24 Illinois 34 23.6, 12 Ohio State 22 29.0
34% 218 Northeast Louisiana 16 17.8, 213 Arkansas State 7 22.9
33% 50 Alabama 31 18.2, 32 Auburn 7 24.2
25% 182 South Carolina State 15 26.7, 120 North Carolina A&T 14 36.6
19% 219 Idaho State 30 23.5, 134 Southern Utah 23 38.8
9% 145 Temple 17 11.6, 42 West Virginia 14 37.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.37 16 0.78 29 1.26 20 1.11 19 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 97 83 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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